- 10월 5일 (월)
Updates:
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The U.S. service sector expanded more than expected in August, showing a solid growth rate, but was weaker than July’s reading. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index declined to 59 in August from 60.3 in the prior month. July’s reading was the highest since 2008. The upbeat release indicates solid growth in the US domestic economy. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers index is expected to decline further to 58.0 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 2% for the fourth month in a row, after a quarter of a percentage point cut performed in May. Market volatility in China and fears its negative economic effects were the main reason for maintaining rates unchanged. Most analysts expected the RBA to maintain its monetary policy until the end of the year. However, some economists said the RBA could cut the cash rate for the third time this year in November.
US Trade Balance: Tuesday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted in July to $41.9 billion, its lowest level in five months, indicating the US economy continues to strengthen, despite a global growth slowdown. Economists expected the trade gap to reach $43.2 billion. Exports increased 0.4% to $188.5 billion, the first increase since April. Imports of consumer goods declined in July. U.S. trade deficit is expected to reach $42.2 billion.
Mario Draghi speaks: Tuesday, 17:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt. He may talk about the recent ECB downgrade of the Eurozone’s economic outlook as well as the continuous deterioration in inflation levels. Clues about further QE measures may be enclosed. Market volatility is expected.
Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in September, admitting Japan’s economic growth was held back by the slowdown in emerging economies, but the BOJ believes advanced economies continue to grow at a moderate pace despite the slowdown of emerging economies. Therefore, the general growth trend remains positive. The BOJ will also expand the monetary base at about $667 billion a year to boost inflation.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold in its September meeting. The Central Bank also lowered its estimate for the UK’s economic growth in the third quarter from 0.7% to 0.6%. Policy makers also claimed that the slowdown in Chinese economy and in emerging economies could badly affect UK’s economic growth. However, despite this, the MPC remained optimistic about the UK economy. A bank is expected to raise rates gradually starting from the first half of 2016.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 277,000 last week, but remained near 15-year lows. Economists expected the number of claims to reach 273,000. The four-week moving average declined 1,000 to 270,750. The total number of people receiving jobless benefits is 2.19 million. The labor market continues to strengthen hand in hand with economic growth. Analysts expect the number of jobless claims to reach 274,000 this week.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 18:00. Federal Reserve policymakers said in July, they are nearing the central bank’s first interest rate hike in almost a decade but require further improvement in the economy and the labor market. Despite encouraging economic data releases, the FOMC decided to postpone September’s rate hike. The current minute’s data will provide further insight as to the reasons for this dramatic delay.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada labor market added an unexpected 12,000 jobs in August, while expected to contract by 4,800. However, the unemployment rate rose to a one-year high of 7% as the participation rate edged up to 65.9% from 65.7%. Overall, the rise in full-time work showed a positive improvement in the Canadian job market, which can offset the rise in the unemployment rate.
Stephen Poloz speaks: Saturday, 18:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz is due to speak at the Institute of International Finance, in Lima. In a recent speech, Polozs said he believes Canada will bounce back from oil plunge despite current hardships. Companies may scale back investment and production amid lower prices, but this will boost demand, which eventually will lead to a price increase.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.
- 10월 5일 (월)
1035 日 9월 서비스업 구매관리자지수(PMI)
1655 獨 9월 서비스업 PMI(확정치)
1700 EU 9월 유로존 서비스업 PMI(확정치)
1730 英 9월 외화보유액
1730 英 9월 CIPS / 마르키트 서비스업 PMI
1800 EU 8월 소매판매
2245 美 9월 마르키트 서비스업 PMI(확정치)
2300 美 9월 고용시장환경지수(LMCI)
2300 美 9월 공급관리협회(ISM) 비제조업 PMI
N/A 日 8월 고용보고서(예비치)
N/A 英 조지 오스본 영국 재무장관 연설
N/A EU 유로존 재무장관 회의(유로그룹)
N/A 中 국경절(금융시장 휴장)
- 10월 6일(화)
0930 濠 8월 무역수지
1100 日 9월 수입자동차판매
1230 濠 호주중앙은행(RBA) 기준금리 결정
1500 獨 8월 제조업 수주
1700 英 9월 차량등록
1710 EU 9월 유로존 소매업 PMI
2045 美 10/03 ICSC-골드만삭스 연쇄점판매지수
2130 美 8월 무역수지
2155 美 10/03 존슨 레드북 소매판매지수
2300 美 10월 경기낙관지수
0530(7일) 美 10/02 미국석유협회(API) 주간석유보고서
N/A EU 유럽연합(EU) 경제ㆍ재무장관 회의(ECOFIN)
N/A 日 10월 일본은행(BOJ) 금융정책회의 1일차
N/A 中 국경절(금융시장 휴장)
-10월 7일(수)
0630 美 존 윌리엄스 샌프란시스코 연방준비은행 총재 연설
0850 日 9월 외화보유액
0900 濠 8월 주택산업협회(HIA) 신규주택판매
1400 日 8월 경기동향지수(예비치)
1500 獨 8월 산업생산
1600 英 9월 Halifax 주택가격지수
1730 英 8월 산업생산
1730 英 9월 협의통화 및 준비잔고
2000 美 모기지은행협회(MBA) 주간 모기지 신청건수
2300 英 9월 영국국립경제사회연구소(NIESR) 월간 국내총생산(GDP) 전망
2330 美 에너지정보청(EIA) 주간 석유재고
0400(8일) 美 8월 소비자신용
N/A 美 오바마 미국 대통령·가우크 독일 대통령 회동
N/A EU 유럽중앙은행(ECB) 정책위원회 비통화정책 회의
N/A 日 10월 BOJ 금융정책회의 2일차·자산매입 규모 결정
N/A 中 국경절(금융시장 휴장)
- 10월 8일(목)
0801 英 9월 RICS 주택가격지수
0801 英 9월 REC&KPMG 고용보고서
0850 日 9월 무역수지(예비치, 1~20日)
0850 日 8월 경상수지
0850 日 Q2 경상수지(수정치)
0850 日 8월 핵심기계류 수주
1330 日 9월 기업도산
1400 日 9월 경기관측보고서
1400 日 10월 BOJ 월간보고서
1800 EU Q2 경상수지(수정치)
1800 獨 ifo 등 독일 싱크탱크 공동 경제전망 발표
2000 英 영란은행(BOE) 기준금리 결정·자산매입 규모 결정
2000 英 10월 BOE 통화정책위원회(MPC) 의사록
2030 EU 9월 ECB 통화정책회의 의사록
2130 美 주간곡물수출
2130 美 주간 신규실업보험 청구자수
2230 美 제임스 불라드 세인트루이스 연은 총재 연설
2330 美 에너지정보청(EIA) 주간 천연가스재고
0100(9일) 美 9월 소매연쇄점판매지수
0130(9일) 美 나라야나 코처라코타 미니애폴리스 연은 총재 연설
0300(9일) 美 9월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 의사록
0430(9일) 美 존 윌리엄스 샌프란시스코 연은 총재 연설
0530(9일) 美 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) 할인창구대출
0530(9일) 美 외국중앙은행 미 국채 보유량
-10월 9일(금)
0930 濠 8월 주택대출
2130 美 9월 수입물가지수
2210 美 데니스 록하트 애틀랜타 연은 총재 연설
2300 美 8월 도매재고
0230(10일) 美 찰스 에번스 시카고 연은 총재 연설
N/A 美 세계곡물수급전망
-10월 10일(토)
N/A 中 9월 신규대출
Here’s what to look out for in the week of Oct. 5: Earnings season begins, the Supreme Court heads back to work, the U.S. House seeks a leader, economic data rolls in. And baseball.
The U.S. House Seeks a Successor to Boehner
After the sudden resignation of longtime Ohio Congressman John Boehner last month, the U.S. House of Representatives will elect a new speaker. A leading candidate is House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Whoever wins Thursday will inherit a series of messy legislative problems that could require the victor to risk alienating colleagues before even settling in to the new job.
Monsanto and Alcoa Lead the Earnings Parade
In a report due Wednesday from Monsanto, investors will look for the biotech seed maker to explain its plan for growth after the failure of its bid for rival Syngenta and amid a continued slump in the farm economy. Earnings traditionalists, however, have circled Thursday on the calendar. Though Alcoa is no longer a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the aluminum firm’s earnings are still considered by many the unofficial kickoff to reporting season. Alcoa’s report, and the rest coming this week, will set the tone for an earnings period that is expected to underwhelm.
The Supremes Return to the Stage
The U.S. Supreme Court’s new term opens this week, and it last week added 13 cases to its docket. Among them are disputes involving the rights of terrorism victims, Alaska moose hunters and public employees. Justices gave no word on whether they will take up last year’s insider-trading decision by a federal appeals court in Manhattan that set a higher standard for proving the crime. The Obama administration wants the related decision reviewed.
More Data for the Fed to Scrutinize
Lackluster employment figures last week have Fed watchers giving longer odds to the prospect of a rate raise later this year. Interest-rate handicappers (and mom-and-pop investors, and everyone else) will be eyeing further data expected in the weeks and months ahead, wondering how it affects policy makers’ decision. This week, we’ll learn about the trade deficit on Tuesday (it narrowed in July), consumer credit on Wednesday and jobless claims on Thursday, a day when the Fed releases minutes from its September meeting.
Baseball's Playoffs Begin
The cold rain that fell on the much of the Eastern U.S. this past week was a reminder that summer is over, and so is baseball, almost. Before it’s done come the playoffs, which this year hold out hope of a Subway Series between New York’s Mets and Yankees; mark the return of the Blue Jays, absent from the postseason since 1993; and just might include the Houston Astros, who are enjoying a turnaround for the ages. Games start Tuesday.