http://www.munhwa.com/news/view.html?no=2015122301070703019001
日성장률 年 0.76% 그쳐… ‘위기의 아베노믹스’
26일 ‘아베 정권 3년’
오는 26일로 아베 신조(安倍晋三) 일본 총리가 재집권한 지 3년이 되지만 일본 안팎에서는 아베 정권의 경제 정책인 아베노믹스의 효과에 대해 의문을 제기하고 있다. 지난 2006∼2007년 집권 당시와 달리 재집권 이후 아베 총리는 경제 활성화에 강한 드라이브를 걸며 국민의 지지를 모아 왔지만, 아베노믹스의 허상이 드러날 경우 그의 독주는 위기에 봉착할 가능성도 배제할 수 없다.
미국 싱크탱크인 미국기업연구소(AEI)의 마이클 오슬린 연구원은 22일 아베 총리 재집권 3년 즈음을 맞아 월스트리트저널(WSJ)에 기고한 ‘아베노믹스는 어디서 작용하고 있나’란 칼럼에서 아베노믹스를 강하게 비판했다.
아베노믹스는 양적 완화, 재정 확대, 구조개혁이라는 이른바 ‘세 개의 화살’을 축으로 이뤄져 있지만, 기업의 소유·경영 구조개혁은 제대로 이뤄지지 않고 있는 것으로 알려졌다.
오슬린 연구원은 일본 현지의 한 미국계 투자은행 대표의 말을 인용해 “아베노믹스는 (일본에서) 기업들이 어떻게 사업을 해야 하는지 전망하기 어렵게 만들고 있다”고 지적하며 아베노믹스 구조개혁의 불확실성을 비판했다. 오슬린 연구원은 또 아베노믹스의 불확실성 속에 일본 기업들은 최소 2조 달러의 막대한 자금을 쥐고 있기만 하고 있다고 지적했다.
니혼게이자이(日本經濟)신문도 21일 ‘아베노믹스, 숨길 수 없는 현실’이란 칼럼을 통해 아베노믹스의 성과가 미미하다고 지적했다. 이 칼럼에 따르면 아베 정권 재집권 직전인 2012년 4분기 때부터 3년간 실질 국내총생산(GDP) 증가율은 2.3%에 불과했으며 이는 같은 기간 미국의 실질증가율 6.7%의 3분의 1 정도에 해당하는 것으로 연평균으로는 0.76%에 지나지 않는다.
니혼게이자이신문은 양적 완화 정책에 따른 엔화 가치하락으로 디플레이션 심리가 누그러지더라도 노동력 감소와 낮은 생산성 등 공급 면에서의 제약 때문에 성장률은 높아지지 않는다고 분석했다. 엔화 약세와 원유가 하락으로 수혜를 입고 있는 기업에 임금을 올리라고 압박해도 공급 측면의 제약 요인이 제거돼 성장에 대한 기대가 높아지지 않는 한 임금인상은 계속될 수 없으며, 임금이 오르지 않으면 결국 디플레이션이 지속될 수밖에 없다는 전망이다.
특히 일본은행의 기업단기경제관측 조사결과에 따르면 노동력 감소로 인한 구인난은 1990년대 ‘버블 붕괴’ 이후 최악의 상황이다. ‘단카이(團塊)세대’(1948년 전후 출생자)의 은퇴와 겹쳐 노동 인구 세대인 15∼64세 인구는 지난 1년간 99만 명이나 감소했다. 이런 노동력 감소가 노동력과 생산설비, 기술 등 공급 측면에서의 성장을 의미하는 잠재성장률을 떨어뜨린다. 일본 내각부 추산에 따르면 실질성장률은 0.5%로 미국의 2%를 크게 밑돈다.
Where Abenomics Is Working
Mr. Abe has many critics. But his efforts to improve corporate governance are on the right track.
By MICHAEL AUSLIN
Dec. 21, 2015 12:59 p.m. ET
When Japan’s third-quarter GDP figures were initially released in mid-November, they showed that the country had officially slipped back into recession. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s critics were quick to declare his Abenomics program a failure, noting that this was Japan’s second recession in this administration.
Yet a revision of the statistics two weeks ago showed that, instead of entering a recession, Japan’s economy in the third quarter actually grew at an annualized rate of 1%. While there is little doubt that Japan faces stiff headwinds as it continues to search for stable economic growth, some observers argue that the focus on gross numbers obscures important areas of improvement and promise.
One of them is in corporate governance. “People are missing how Abenomics is changing the landscape of how companies do business,” said the head of one of America’s major investment banks in Japan, who requested anonymity since he was speaking not in an official capacity. This is a surprising comment, given that Japan’s corporations are seen as one of the prime culprits for why economic reform has stalled.
Corporate investment in Japan has essentially been flat since 2010, and companies hold staggering amounts of cash—at least $2 trillion by some estimates. Moreover, they are raising wages only marginally, which depresses consumer spending.
There are numerous explanations for why Japan’s corporations refrain from pumping money into the economy. The most commonly heard excuse is lack of confidence in Mr. Abe’s larger reform plan, specifically his government’s ability to make significant structural reforms. Called the third arrow of Abenomics, these reforms have been the least developed of the policies Mr. Abe has pursued since coming into office in late 2012.
After several years of hesitation, this summer Mr. Abe pushed through much-needed but limited agricultural reform, designed to reduce the main agricultural cooperative’s influence and to consolidate and sell farmland more easily. He also reiterated his commitment to reducing Japan’s corporate-tax rate—currently at 35%—by at least three percentage points, and deregulate the energy sector.
Other reforms, such as amending labor laws, have moved far more slowly. Those delays may lead Japan’s business sector to hold off on capital investment and wage raises.
Some observers absolve Mr. Abe of blame and point the finger at corporations themselves. “The leading companies refuse to open themselves up to the world,” a long-time foreign businessman in Tokyo told me, who also asked to speak off the record, given his criticisms. He said they continue to resist appointing women executives and foreign directors, avoid foreign direct investment, and are complacent in the face of declining productivity.
Japanese corporations are often criticized for an insistence on internal consensus before they can act. That supposedly makes them risk averse and allows rivals from South Korea, Taiwan and increasingly from China to react faster to changes in the market.
But the American investment bank head says this isn’t so. “Corporate governance is changing rapidly in Japan,” he argues. Some of the changes are structural, others are cultural. one important development is the Corporate Governance Code enacted this summer, which requires a minimum number of outside directors on company boards and reduces cross-shareholding. Companies must comply with the code or explain their failure to do so.
A parallel to the governance code is the Stewardship Code put in place last year, requiring asset managers to push management to deliver better returns. Encouraging active engagement and voting in annual meetings should put more emphasis on shareholders’ interests. According to the investment bank head, pension funds and life insurers that have historically been sleepy shareholders are beginning to act differently.
As a sign that Mr. Abe is committed to giving the reforms some bite, Japan’s powerful Financial Services Agency has convened a Council of Experts to assess the effectiveness of the Stewardship and Corporate Governance Codes. In addition, the JPX-Nikkei 400 index was launched last year, and includes Japan’s top 400 companies based on metrics including profitability, return on investment and the number of outside directors. Of the leading companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Price Index (Topix), 87% now have at least one foreign director.
Another major event was the privatization of Japan Post, a decade after former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi first pushed for it. Japan Post Holdings, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance listed their shares on Nov. 4. With $11.5 billion initially available for investment—approximately 11% of Japan Post’s total funds—the potential impact on capital markets is huge, especially if the government reduces its ownership in Japan Post Holdings to below 50%.
The benefits from Japan’s corporate reforms have yet to ripple through the economy. Corporate profits may be rising and investors may be growing richer, but Japan’s workers haven’t shared in the wealth. The goal of reform must be to create more employment opportunities, wage increases and entrepreneurship in Japan. only if ordinary workers see benefits can we judge Abenomics as successful.
The changes in Japan’s corporate governance are in their early stages, and it will take time to feel their impact. Like with any reform scheme, the consequent short-term disruption will be highly publicized, strengthening opposition to even this first step towards further globalization of Japanese businesses. As part of a much larger transformation of Japan’s economy from postwar heavy industry into an information-based production system, today’s changes may have profound effects.
Mr. Auslin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and columnist for WSJ.com, is the author of the forthcoming book, “The Asia Bubble.”
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-06/abenomics-is-working
Abenomics Is Working
28 OCT 6, 2015 6:25 PM EDT
By Editorial Board
Japan is on the threshold of a new golden age -- according to no less an authority than Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Is that to be believed? Even discounting for patriotic zeal, Abe's pride is justified: The prevailing gloom about Japan is overdone.
Give Abe credit for wrenching the Japanese economy out of its long, deep rut of deflation and slow growth. The reforms he's already undertaken are largely working, and now, he says, he's pushing for "Abenomics 2.0." Even if it only partially succeeds, it will be no exaggeration to say that Abe has put Japan on a new course.
For now, to be sure, the short-term indicators are poor. Industrial production fell in August, dragged down by weak domestic consumption and faltering demand in China. Deflation is back as well. Prices fell by 0.1 percent in the year to August, despite the Bank of Japan's efforts to push inflation up. Japan may well dip back into recession -- which would be a serious political setback for Abe, who's staked his reputation on restoring growth.
These problems, though, say more about the strength of short-term cyclical pressures than about the rights and wrongs of Abenomics. Core inflation, despite the recent setback, has been responding to Abe's treatment. That's a notable achievement in an economy that stagnated for two decades. The BoJ's quantitative easing is working.
Abenomics
Years of vacillating, ineffective fiscal policy left Abe with another huge challenge: controlling an enormous accumulated burden of public debt without unduly squeezing demand. This isn't getting any easier. Etsuro Honda, one of Abe's main economic advisers, has proposed a new short-term stimulus package to shield low-income households from the cyclical downturn, and Abe indicated he was open to the idea. In a phrase familiar in another context, he said he'd do "whatever it takes" to keep the economy growing.
Beyond the short term, freeing up the supply side of Japan's economy -- the "third arrow" of Abenomics -- matters at least as much as supporting demand. And here too, Abe has made progress, resisting powerful interests to reform agricultural practices and cut corporate taxes. Corporate-governance reforms have begun to exert pressure on boards to strive for profit and invest more productively.
Remaking Japan Inc.
In other areas, admittedly, Abe's supply-side reforms are lagging or incomplete. While a gender-equality law is boosting female participation in the workforce, Japan's labor market still badly needs modernization. More flexible work rules and more liberal immigration policies are necessary. Abe acknowledges the issue but has made little progress. Overall, though, the record to date is good by any country's standards -- and by Japan's, little short of remarkable.
In a talk at a Bloomberg conference in late September, Abe rightly emphasized the importance of persistence. A golden age is not a short-term project or the work of a single leader. But a single determined leader can point the way, and that's what Abe is doing.
To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg View’s editorials: David Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net.