시장분석/주월간 마감

2018: The Year Ahead - Wall Street Journal

정석_수학 2018. 1. 3. 15:08




2 0 1 8THE YEAR AHEAD

From North Korea’s nuclear program to sectarian strife in the Middle East, global security worries promise to make headlines in 2018. In the U.S., the White House faces policy challenges and an ongoing probe, while investors confront near-record asset prices. Here are some events to watch.

Published Dec. 31, 2017 at 7:00 a.m. ET

U.S.

PHOTO: ROBIN LOZNAK/ZUMA PRESS
REPUBLICANS FACE A MIDTERM CHALLENGE

Having achieved their primary goal of enacting a tax overhaul in 2017, President Donald Trump and the majority Republicans in Congress are looking to tackle an effort to shore up the nation’s infrastructure early in 2018.

In a midterm-election year where all House seats and a third of the Senate’s are up, the GOP will be playing both offense and defense. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), in a move that would appeal to the party’s base, has said he hopes to overhaul federal safety-net programs.

Midterms are generally a challenge for the party controlling the White House in a president’s first term. And special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, and the potential involvement of the Trump campaign, continues to hold peril for the GOP. Democrats during the fall campaigns are expected to cast the new tax law as a boon to the wealthy.

On the economy, the Federal Reserve expects continued improvement and has penciled in three rate increases for the year. The U.S. faces the prospect of a new era in monetary policy when Janet Yellen steps aside as the bank’s top official. And negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement are expected to come to a head, with big implications for the automobile industry, agriculture and for relations among the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

Changes to the nation’s tax law take effect

Senate convenes for second year of 115th Congress. Tina Smith, successor to Minnesota Democratic Sen. Al Franken, is set to be sworn in, as is Doug Jones (D., Ala.) to succeed Republican Luther Strange

Release of minutes from December FOMC meeting

House reconvenes

Legislation keeping the government open expires on this date, requiring Congress to reach an agreement on new funding, or forcing a government shutdown

Women’s March; marches are planned in cities across the U.S. a year after record-setting protests

Nafta negotiations are set to resume in January.
Nafta negotiations are set to resume in January.EDGARD GARRIDO/REUTERS

Negotiators for the U.S., Mexico and Canada will gather in Montreal for the next round of Nafta talks

President Trump delivers his State of the Union address to Congress

Beginning as early as February, tens of millions of workers could see changes to their paychecks as withholdings will change under the new tax law

Jerome Powell is expected to head the Federal Reserve.
Jerome Powell is expected to head the Federal Reserve. JOSHUA ROBERTS/REUTERS

Jerome Powell expected to succeed Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chief

The U.S. Treasury hit its debt limit in December and the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that, without a change to the limit, the Treasury would likely run out of funds as early as March

Fed policy statement; Chairman Powell’s first quarterly news conference

EPA will determine by April if future stringent vehicle fuel-economy and emissions standards set by the Obama Administration will remain in place

Supreme Court hears final arguments of the 2017-18 term. Opinions in all cases expected before July

Fed policy statement; quarterly news conference

Fed policy statement; quarterly news conference

The Supreme Court hears final arguments in April.
The Supreme Court hears final arguments in April. MICHAEL REYNOLDS/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

Supreme Court's 2018-19 term begins

Election Day; 34 Senate seats, 36 governorships, and the House of Representatives will be up for grabs in the midterm elections

Fed policy statement; quarterly news conference

WORLD

PHOTO: ALEXEI DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/PRESS POOL
RISING THREATS TEST THE WEST

It is shaping up to be a pivotal year for global security. North Korea’s race to strengthen its nuclear arsenal is roiling Asia and challenging international efforts to prevent the spread of atomic weapons.

Meanwhile, more assertive governments in China and Russia are seeking to exert their influence abroad and offer a rival approach to a Western-led order amid partisan battles in Washington and political splits in the European Union.

Jihadists fleeing the collapse of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq take up positions in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and northwest Africa and seek to infiltrate Western Europe. Sectarian tensions mount across the Islamic world as Sunni power Saudi Arabia faces off with predominantly Shiite Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman expected to visit the White House to meet President Donald Trump

Pope Francis travels to Chile and Peru

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro expected to stand for re-election as his country flirts with default and hyperinflation

Prime Minister Theresa May and European Council President Donald Tusk talk after a bilateral meeting press conference.
Prime Minister Theresa May and European Council President Donald Tusk talk after a bilateral meeting press conference. CHRISTIAN HARTMANN/AFP/GETTY

European Union and U.K. due to start talks on post-Brexit trade relations

Italy holds parliamentary elections. The anti-establishment 5 Star Movement is battling the country’s mainstream politicians

China’s legislature opens its annual session. As President Xi Jinping starts a second term firmly in charge, lawmakers will appoint a new cabinet and approve a government budget and economic policies

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, center, submits documents to register as a presidential candidate.
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, center, submits documents to register as a presidential candidate. MAXIM SHIPENKOV/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

Russia goes to the polls in presidential elections Vladimir Putin is widely expected to win. The leading opposition politician has been barred from competing

Egypt expected to hold presidential elections

Cuban president Raul Castro, who succeeded his brother Fidel, expected to step down, beginning a slow and partial transition of power to a younger generation of Communist officials

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks during a European Central Bank conference.
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks during a European Central Bank conference.ARMANDO BABANI/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s five-year term expires

The spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group in Washington

Mexican voters go the polls in national elections that will revolve around relations with the U.S. and corruption scandals

North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders meet in Brussels, amid U.S. pressure on European allies to boost military spending

Demonstrators protesting the auctioning off of foreclosed homes clash with riot police at an Athens courtroom in November.
Demonstrators protesting the auctioning off of foreclosed homes clash with riot police at an Athens courtroom in November. LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/GETTY

Greece could exit the bailout regime it has been under since 2010

Diplomats aiming to complete negotiations on Britain’s exit from the EU to allow time for ratification before a March 2019 deadline

The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group in Bali, Indonesia

The heads of state of the Group of 20 nations gather in Buenos Aires for the annual G-20 summit

BUSINESS & MARKETS

PHOTO: DADO RUVIC/REUTERS
AUTOMATION DRIVES
THE CORPORATE AGENDA

For businesses, 2018 is shaping up as an eventful year. Automation and artificial intelligence, from how people drive to how they communicate, are likely to be big themes—and with them, concerns about privacy and cybersecurity that come from conducting most business and personal affairs online.

Regulators will have to decide on a couple of big pending mergers. Meanwhile, retailers face another tough year in their battle with Amazon.com, which could also emerge as a threat to the healthcare industry if it decides in 2018 to begin selling prescription drugs online.

Changes atop the Federal Reserve portend possible shifts in monetary policy and bank regulation at a time when markets are keenly attuned to both. The Republican overhaul of U.S. tax law figures to ripple through industries and the economy. Investors also will grapple with the implications of rising corporate profitability and new taxpayer behaviors.

And the year begins with a whole host of assets near record prices. While the global economy is looking healthier than it has in years, some investors are concerned that a sharp 2017 asset-price rally and a long period of unusually placid trading have left financial markets vulnerable to a shock.

Many see risks residing in China’s economy, U.S. politics and global central bankers’ struggle to boost inflation.

A robot playing chess at CES in 2017. Artificial intelligence is likely to be among the big themes in corporate news this year.
A robot playing chess at CES in 2017. Artificial intelligence is likely to be among the big themes in corporate news this year. ROB LEVER/AFP/GETTY

CES consumer electronics show, Las Vegas

North American International Auto Show, Detroit

Expiration of first bitcoin futures listed by Cboe Global Markets Inc.

Inside ETFs conference, Hollywood, Fla.

Expiration of first bitcoin futures listed by CME Group Inc.

Bond Buyer Municipal Outlook Conference, New York

Elon Musk’s SpaceX expected to conduct the first launch of its long-delayed Falcon Heavy rocket, designed to transport the largest satellites into orbit

International Trade Commission due to rule on merits of U.S. trade complaint against Bombardier Inc. over alleged state subsidies and unfair pricing. Boeing Co., which brought the case, reports fourth quarter earnings

Singapore Airshow

Barcelona Mobile World Congress

Deadline for European Commission to rule on Bayer AG’s proposed $46 billion takeover of Monsanto Co.

IHS CERAWeek, the oil industry’s biggest global event, in Houston

Geneva International Motor Show

Jim Adkins of Jimmy Eat World performing at SXSW in 2017.
Jim Adkins of Jimmy Eat World performing at SXSW in 2017. VIVIEN KILLILEA/GETTY

South by Southwest music, film and interactive event in Austin, Texas

Trial of DOJ case against merger of AT&T Inc. and Time Warner Inc. set to begin

Toshiba Corp.’s target date for completing $18 billion sale of its memory-chip unit to consortium led by Bain Capital

RSA Conference on cybersecurity in San Francisco

Ira Sohn investment conference in New York

Beijing Auto Show

Milken Institute Global Conference, Los Angeles

Investors at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2017 annual meeting in Omaha, Neb.
Investors at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2017 annual meeting in Omaha, Neb. DANIEL ACKER/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, Omaha, Neb.

Finra annual conference, Washington

Deutsche Bank Financial Services Conference, New York

Federal Reserve expected to release the final results of stress tests for the nation’s largest banks

American Society of Clinical oncology annual meeting, Chicago

International Air Transport Association annual meeting in Sydney, Australia

Morningstar Investment Conference, Chicago

OPEC meets in Vienna

Cosplayers at the San Diego Comic-Con in July.
Cosplayers at the San Diego Comic-Con in July.SANDY HUFFAKER/GETTY

Farnborough International Air Show

Delivering Alpha investing conference, New York

Comic-Con International in San Diego

The Tetons loom over visitors in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
The Tetons loom over visitors in Jackson Hole, Wyo. DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyo.

S&P 500 bull market would become longest ever

Sifma annual conference, Washington

LIFE & ARTS

PHOTO: KIM HONG-JI/REUTERS
WINTER OLYMPICS, BEYONCÉ AT COACHELLA, SPIELBERG’S DYSTOPIA

The Oscars test Hollywood’s capacity for self-celebration after the harassment scandals. The winter Olympic Games play out against a tense geopolitical backdrop. The FBI director fired by President Donald Trump releases a memoir, and a former president pens a thriller.

Jasper Johns and Alberto Giacometti do battle in exhibits on opposite coasts. The Southwestern sun rises on Taylor Swift. And it wouldn’t be a new year without another “Star Wars” movie.

Arts and Entertainment

The 60th annual Grammy Awards, in New York City for the first time since 2003

More than 100 Jasper Johns works are the stars of an exhibit at the Broad in Los Angeles

“Black Panther” debuts, the first of at least six movies starring Marvel Comics characters in 2018

Oscar statues are prepped before the Academy Awards in 2017.
Oscar statues are prepped before the Academy Awards in 2017. VALERIE MACON/AFP/GETTY

The 90th Oscars, emceed by returning late-night host Jimmy Kimmel

Ava DuVernay’s “A Wrinkle in Time” in theaters starring Oprah Winfrey

Steven Spielberg releases his dystopian movie about virtual-reality escapism, “Ready Player one”

Beyoncé performing at a ‘Get Out the Vote’ concert for then Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in November 2016.
Beyoncé performing at a ‘Get Out the Vote’ concert for then Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in November 2016.ANDREW HARNIK/AP

The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, featuring Beyoncé

The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony, in Cleveland

Pulitzer Prize winners announced

Former FBI director James Comey’s “A Higher Loyalty” hits bookstores

Taylor Swift’s U.S. tour begins, in Arizona

“Warlight,” a novel from Booker Prize-winning author Michael ondaatje, is published

Arrival of “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” a Han Solo prequel featuring a young Chewbacca

Bill Clinton turns debut novelist with “The President is Missing,” co-authored by James Patterson

More than 175 works by Swiss artist Alberto Giacometti go on view at the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum in New York

Sandra Bullock stars in "Ocean's 8," a spinoff of "Ocean's 11" featuring a glittery female cast

Tony Awards celebrate theater at New York’s Radio City Music Hall

Julia Louis-Dreyfus with her Emmy Award honors for ‘Veep.’
Julia Louis-Dreyfus with her Emmy Award honors for ‘Veep.’ JORDAN STRAUSS/AP

Emmy Awards air live from Los Angeles

Nobel Prize in Literature is announced

Man Booker Prize for Fiction awarded in the honor's 50th-anniversary year

National Book Award winners announced in New York

Sports

The National Football League’s Super Bowl in Minneapolis

Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea

Baseball’s opening day

Phil Mickelson teeing off at the 17th hole of the Masters golf tournament in Augusta.
Phil Mickelson teeing off at the 17th hole of the Masters golf tournament in Augusta. HARRY HOW/GETTY

The Masters golf tournament begins, Augusta, Georgia

National Hockey League’s Stanley Cup playoffs begin.

The Kentucky Derby is run at Churchill Downs in Louisville

Soccer’s Champion League final in Kiev

The French Open tennis tournament begins in Paris

The National Basketball Association Finals begin

Viktor Vasin of the Russian men’s soccer team during a match against Spain in November.
Viktor Vasin of the Russian men’s soccer team during a match against Spain in November.KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/GETTY

Soccer’s World Cup tournament begins in Russia with the first of 64 games

Golf’s U.S. Open begins in Southampton, N.Y.

Tennis’s Wimbledon begins in London

Tour de France 14th stage at Rodez, France in 2017
Tour de France 14th stage at Rodez, France in 2017 DAVID STOCKMAN/ZUMA PRESS

Cycling’s Tour de France begins

Golf’s British Open begins in Carnoustie, Scotland

Tennis’s U.S. Open begins in New York

Baseball’s World Series starts

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