빈 살만 사우디왕자 급부상.. 석유 감산 정책 탄력받는다

빈 살만 사우디왕자 급부상.. 석유 감산 정책 탄력받는다

아람코 증시 상장 앞두고 주가 올리려면 유가 올라야

【 뉴욕=정지원 특파원】사우디아라비아의 왕위계승 서열 2위였던 무함마드 빈 살만 왕자가 제1왕위계승자로 부상하면서 사우디의 감산 정책이 더 탄력을 받을 것이라고 뉴욕타임스(NYT)가 21일(현지시간) 보도했다. 

NYT는 유가 하락으로 사우디의 경제가 크게 타격을 받고 있는 상황에서 사우디는 유가 인상을 꾀하기 위해 석유수출국기구(OPEC)의 감산 정책을 주도하고 있다면서 빈 살만 왕자는 이와 같은 감산 정책을 더욱 강화시킬 것으로 예상된다고 내다봤다. 

빈 살만 왕자는 또한 자신이 주도해온 사우디 경제개혁 방안인 '사우디 비전 2030' 계획에도 박차를 가할 것으로 예상된다. 

사우디 비전 2030은 석유에 의존해오던 기존 경제구도에서 탈피해 신성장동력을 육성하자는 경제개발 정책으로 국영석유회사인 아람코의 증시 상장 계획을 포함하고 있다. 아람코의 증시 상장가를 끌어올리기 위해서는 유가 상승이 필수적이다. 

따라서 사우디의 감산정책이 유지될 것이라는 의견이 지배적이다. 

그러나 빈 살만 왕자가 그동안 사우디의 반이란 정책을 주도해온 강경파인 사실을 감안했을 때 그가 차기 국왕 내정자로 부상하면서 중동 정세에 긴장감이 감돌고 있다. 

중동 전문가들은 과거 사우디 왕가 사례를 볼 때 빈 살만 왕자의 왕위자리 계승은 상당한 정치적 불확실성을 초래할 수 있다고 분석하고 있다. 

빈 살만 왕자는 최근 이란과 지역 내 테러조직을 지원한다는 이유로 사우디.아랍에미리트연합(UAE).이집트 등 이웃 국가들이 카타르와 단교를 선언한 데도 강력한 영향을 행사한 것으로 알려졌다. 

빈 살만 왕자의 지지자들은 "올해 31세인 왕세자는 사우디 경제에 새롭고 활기찬 젊음의 바람을 불어넣을 것"으로 기대하고 있지만 일각에서는 그의 원유시장에 대한 경험 부족과 지나친 간섭에 대해 우려를 표명하고 있다. 

중동 에너지업계 전문가인 채탐 하우스의 폴 스티븐스는 "빈 살만이 어디로 튈지 모르는 것이 문제"라며 "그가 누구로부터 자문을 얻고 있는지 현재 상황에서는 가늠할 수 없다"고 말했다.

jjung72@fnnews.com 

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Saudi Prince’s Elevation Will Have Far-Reaching Consequences in Energy

By STANLEY REEDJUNE 21, 2017

As the new heir apparent to the throne of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman will play an even more influential role in world oil markets at a time when big crude-producing nations are struggling to prop up prices.

Prince Mohammed, who was named crown prince on Wednesday, has upended the traditional Saudi energy model in the nearly two and a half years since his father ascended the throne. Whereas the royal family had previously been content to leave the running of the oil industry to seasoned technocrats, the prince has sought to exert influence over the country’s huge energy resources.

With the kingdom’s economy suffering from weakened oil markets, Saudi Arabia, with the prince’s backing, has been a leading force behind the effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to bolster prices by limiting production. It is a complicated task with prices continuing to fall, as American shale oil producers and Libya add to the glut of supplies.

Domestically, Prince Mohammed has sought to consolidate control over the energy sector. He has brought in Wall Street bankers to organize an initial public offering of the national oil company, Saudi Aramco, which is likely to value the enterprise at hundreds of billions of dollars. And he has replaced the country’s longtime oil minister, replacing him with a more pliant hand who has become crucial to fulfilling the prince’s plans.

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Supporters say the 31-year-old prince will bring youthful energy and a fresh eye to the kingdom’s most valuable export, using it to help modernize and diversify the economy. Detractors, however, charge that he is inexperienced and prone to meddling, undermining experienced officials and making sudden public pronouncements.

“The problem is he is unpredictable, and it is not clear who he is relying on for advice,” said Paul Stevens, a Middle East energy analyst at Chatham House, a research organization based in London.

Here’s how Prince Mohammed’s rise may affect oil prices, global energy production and the sale of shares in Saudi Aramco:

The prospect of falling prices

Oil prices are around $45 a barrel, continued their slide after the news of Prince Mohammed’s promotion.

That is down 20 percent since mid-April, and well off the levels in 2014 above $100 a barrel.

The main reason for the decline in prices, though, is that OPEC’s much-trumpeted production cuts seem to be having little impact on the persistent glut of oil for sale.

The higher prices resulting from OPEC cuts have prompted increased production from shale oil producers in the United States and by other rivals, undercutting the cartel’s actions.

Flip-flopping Saudi energy prices

Prince Mohammed appears to have gone back and forth on oil strategy.

He initially declared that prices did not matter. But when they fell to uncomfortable levels early last year, he backed production cuts by OPEC and other producers, like Russia, as a way to prop up prices.

The Saudis and OPEC may now be headed for another crunch, and there do not seem to be any good options.

Analysts say the most likely path is for the Saudis to persist with, or even deepen, production cuts to bolster prices and improve the environment for the Saudi Aramco I.P.O.

“We should be prepared for Saudi Arabia to do whatever it takes to keep the prices above” $50 a barrel, FGE, an energy consultancy, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “If the I.P.O. is to go ahead, prices cannot go below” $50 a barrel, it added.

OPEC’s debate

The question is how long the Saudis can stick with a policy of reduced production if it does not result in higher prices.

In 2014, Saudi Arabia’s former oil minister Ali al-Naimi concluded that there was little point in OPEC restraining production because any cuts would just be replaced by producers of shale oil.

When prices fell below $30 a barrel early last year, Mr. Naimi and other officials began pursuing temporary production restraints to prop up prices.

So far, those cuts are credited with bolstering prices and supporting the revenues of producer countries. But falling prices could push Prince Mohammed to once again consider whether output constraints serve Saudi interests.

An I.P.O. dependent on oil prices

Prince Mohammed’s elevation gives him added authority to push ahead with his pet project, overriding the objections of traditionalists who argue that only the state should own natural resources like oil.

The Saudi Aramco offering is a big part of the prince’s overall blueprint for overhauling the economy and reducing its dependence on oil, a plan known as Vision 2030.

Oil prices, though, may play a major role in the success of his ambitious undertaking: Buoyant prices would help raise more money through the I.P.O., and help attract investment to Saudi Arabia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/business/energy-environment/saudi-mohammed-oil-opec.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fmiddleeast