오늘 새벽 (달러 약세에도 불구하고) 석유가 하락한 진짜 이유.
.
박문환 이사(샤프슈터)...<JP모건>의 영향력은 역시 대단했습니다.
어제 JP모건이 에너지 관련 섹터에 대한 투자를 권고했다는 말씀을 드렸었는데요, 오늘 새벽 유가가 하락했음에도 불구하고, 쉐브런 엑손모빌과 같은 정유주는 물론이고, 유럽의 리오틴토나 툴로우 오일 등 대부분의 에너지 관련주와 자원관련주가 일제히 상승했습니다.
.
하지만 주가는 일제히 하락했지요?
저는 늘 새벽에 12시 전후로 일어납니다.
뉴스가 임펙되는 순간의 주가 흐름을 정확하게 추적하고 있지요,
오늘도 유가의 흐름에 의해서, 주가의 흐름이 좌우되는 모습을 볼 수 있었습니다.
.
좀 더 자세하게 설명드리죠.
.
오늘 새벽, 시가 주변에서는, 미국의 지난주 석유 재고량이 예상을 깨고 지난 9월 이후 첫 감소세를 나타냈다고 에너지정보청(EIA)이 발표하면서 뉴욕 증시는 한 때 1%나 상승했었습니다.
하지만 유가는 다시 하락으로 전환이 되었고, 주가도 덩달아 하락했습니다.
.
먼저, 시가 주변에 유가가 상승했던 이유부터 설명을 드리자면, 전문가들이 예상했던 원유 재고가 25만 2000배럴 증가에 맞추어져 있었지만, 오히려 360만 배럴이나 감소했기 때문이었습니다.
유가도 오르고 주가도 올랐었지요.
하지만, 다시 증류유 재고가 예상치의 두 배나 증가했다는 소식이 있었고, 유가와 주가가=는 빠르게 하락으로 전환되었습니다.
.
요즘처럼 시장이 유가에 민감하게 반응하는 시기도 없는 것 같습니다.
그래서 오늘 새벽 유가가 왜 그리 변덕을 부렸었는지, 그 진짜 이유도 분명하게 알아두셔야 할 것입니다.
오늘은 그 비밀을 확~~풀어 헤쳐 드리겠습니다.
.
일단, 시장의 예상치를 완전히 뒤집고 원유 재고가 감소한 원인은 이미 오래전부터 말씀을 드렸었습니다.
최근, 미국에서 원유 재고가 늘어났던 이유는, 정유 회사들의 정기 보수 때문이고, 조만간 정기 보수가 마무리 되면 당연히 원유 재고는 빠르게 감소하게 될 것이라는 말씀을 이미 드린 바 있습니다.
실제로, 미국의 정유회사들은 정기보수로 인해 시설 가동률이 -1.4%포인트 감소했었으니까요...
그러니까, 오늘 새벽 시장의 예상치를 화끈하게 벗어나면서 원유 재고가 감소한 이유는, 명백합니다.
정유사 시설 가동률의 복원 때문이었습니다.
.
그럼, 이번에는 갑자기 유가가 방향을 돌려서 하락으로 전환된 이유를 설명드리죠.
많은 석유관련 전문가들은, 디젤유와 난방유를 포함한 <증류유> 재고가 500만배럴이나 증가한 부분을 지목하고 있는데요, 제 생각은 전~~혀 다릅니다.
단지, 시장 예상치인 250만배럴 증가를 두 배나 넘게 상회했기 때문에, 이것이 석유 시장에 우려감을 주었다는 주장은 설득력이 없습니다.
.
아시다시피, 북반구는 지금 겨울입니다.
미국의 정유사들은 정기보수가 끝나면 즉시 난방유에 대한 생산 비중을 늘리게 되어 있습니다. 그러니까 지금 난방유 재고가 예상치에 두 배나 늘어난 것은 전혀 놀라운 일은 아닙니다.
.
그럼, 이제부터 제가 생각하는 <진짜 이유>를 말씀드리죠.
.
EIA는 오늘 새벽, 지난주 오클라호마주 <쿠싱> 지역의 석유 재고가 42만3000배럴 늘었다고 밝혔습니다.
쿠칭의 원유 재고량은, <사상 최고치>입니다.
이 뉴스에 주목해주십시오.
.
오클라호마의 <쿠칭>은, 미국의 석유 수입항입니다.
문제는 오클라호마의 저장시설이 이제 모가지까지 꽉 차서 더 이상 수용이 불가능할 정도라는 겁니다.
.
달러의 양적완화를 성공적으로 유지하기 위해서 물가의 하락 안정이 필요했고, 물가에 가장 지대한 영향을 줄 수밖에 없는 유가의 하락을 원했기 때문에, 미국은 사우디에 증산을 요구했을 겁니다.
석유를 시추하는 장비를 <예스머신> 이라고 하지요? 이 기계들은 증산을 하다가 멈추기 어렵습니다.
추가로 생산해 놓은 물량에 대한 수요처가 확실치 않으면, 생산이 불가능하지요.
결국, 미국이 사우디에, 추가 증산을 요구했다면, 추가 생산량은 미국이 수입해준다는 조건이 붙어 있었을 겁니다.
.
물론 저의 추측입니다만, 이 추측은 간단하게 입증이 가능한데요,
.
좀 전에 미국의 석유 재고가 모가지까지 찼다고 했었습니다.
그럼 당연히 수입량은 줄어야 하는데요, 놀랍게도 미국의 석유 수입은 오히려, 27만4000배럴 증가했습니다.
저장 시설이 모가지까지 찼다면, 수입은 감소했어야 하는데요, 오히려 늘었다면, 충분히 입증이 될 것 같습니다.
.
여기까지 이해하셨다면, 이제 다음 단계로 가보겠습니다.
.
<쿠칭>은 원유 수출입항이라고 했습니다.
또한 이미 모가지까지 꽉 찼다고 했습니다. 이 두 가지는 잊지 마십시오.
.
그런데, 미국의 석유 선물 시장은 현물 인수도가 특징입니다.
즉, 만기에 현물을 인수해야 한다는 것이죠.
이건 중요한 특징인데요, 우리나라의 지수 선물처럼 매수자와 매도자가 <넷팅>하고, 차액만 주고 받으면 끝나는 시장이 아닙니다.
매수 포지션을 가진 사람은, 만기에 청산되지 않으면, 현물, 즉 석유로 받아와야만 합니다.
.
석유 거래자들은 이미 쿠칭의 저장 시설이 꽉 찼기 때문에 매수 포지션을 롤오버 하기 어렵습니다.
매수 포지션을 가지고 있다면, 둘 중에 하나를 선택해야만 합니다.
포지션을 헐값이라도 정리하거나, 혹은 유조선을 이끌고 쿠칭으로 가서 석유를 싣고 와야 하지요.
.
결국, 미국의 석유 시장은 선물 시장의 롱포지션이 저장 시설의 과포화로 인해 선물 매수 포지션에서 어쩔 수 없는 전매도 물량이 나올 수밖에 없고, 이 물량이 또다시 현물 가격을 끌어 내리는 악순환에 빠져 있는 것이죠.
.
결론적으로, 이 문제가 해결되기 위해서는 달러 약세 전환이라고 하는 <트리거>가 필요합니다.
쿠칭의 저장 시설이 과포화 상태이기 때문에, 매수 포지션의 청산은 피할 방법이 없고, 결국 달러가 약세로 전환되어 유가가 상승기류를 타고, 수요가 다시 살아 나야만, 개선이 될 것입니다.
.
다만, 석유에 대한 숏포지션에 과도하기 때문에 언제든 숏커버에 의한 급반전 가능성 역시 열려 있습니다.
.
하나금융투자 청담 금융센터 박문환 이사(샤프슈터)
.
오클라호마 쿠싱
http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/crude-oil-prices-rise-due-short-covering-falling-us-dollar/
Crude Oil Prices Rise Due to Short Covering and Falling US Dollar
US crude oil prices
January WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose by 2.9% and settled at $41.08 per barrel on Thursday, December 3, 2015. Prices rose due to short covering and the depreciating US dollar. ETFs such as the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) followed the price trajectory of WTI crude oil prices. These ETFs rose by 2.3% and 4.9%, respectively, in yesterday’s trade.
Enlarge GraphShort covering
Like US crude oil prices, Brent crude oil prices rose in yesterday’s trade. Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.2% and settled at $43.84 per barrel. Prices rose due to short covering. Hedge funds and traders are net short on crude oil futures. Long-term oversupply concerns and speculation of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) maintaining its group’s quota of production levels in tomorrow’s meeting led to a further increase in short positions.
However, hedge funds and traders covered their short positions in yesterday’s trade in order to prevent a last-minute surprise from the OPEC meeting. If OPEC decides to cut production or even hints at a production cut in the near term, we’ll likely see the oil market rise. Thus, bearish traders covered their short positions.
US dollar
The US Dollar Index fell by 2.3% against the basket of currencies in yesterday’s trade. The US dollar depreciated as the European Central Bank reduced its interest rates on deposits. The depreciating dollar makes dollar-denominated oil more affordable for oil-importing countries. As a result, US crude oil prices rose almost 3% in yesterday’s trade.
The rise in crude oil prices benefits US oil producers like Range Resources Corporation (RRC), Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC), Noble Energy (NBL), and Apache Corporation (APA). In contrast, a rise in oil prices negatively affects oil refiners like Tesoro Corporation (TSO) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO).
Volatility analysis
Crude oil prices fell for the fifth time in the last ten trading sessions. US crude oil futures were among the top performers in yesterday’s trade. However, prices have fallen more than 20% YTD (year-to-date) due to oversupply concerns. The volatility in the oil market also affects ETFs like the iShares US Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ) and the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY). Meanwhile, crude oil prices are expected to be bearish for the week ahead. We’ll explore this more in the next part of this series.
Why Cushing Crude Oil Inventory Could Weigh on Crude Oil Prices
EIA’s Cushing crude oil inventory
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that the crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 0.428 MMbbls (million barrels) to 59 MMbbls for the week ending November 27, 2015. Cushing, Oklahoma, is the largest storage hub of the United States. It is also the delivery point for crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX. Cushing crude oil inventories rose for the fourth consecutive week.
Enlarge GraphNew pipelines boost crude oil inventory
The current inventory at Cushing is more than double the crude oil inventory of 24 MMbbls in 2014. New pipelines led to the mammoth rise in crude oil inventory at Cushing. The major pipeline infrastructure provider in this region is the Keystone Pipeline. It’s owned by TransCanada (TRP).
The Cushing crude oil inventory was also the key for the rise in the nationwide crude oil inventory, which rose by 1.2 MMbbls to 489.4 MMbbls for the week ending November 27. The US crude oil inventory rose for the tenth consecutive week. During the last ten weeks, the US crude oil inventory has added 35.4 MMbbls. The current crude oil inventory is at its highest level since the 1930s.
Impact on upstream stocks
The consensus of rising crude oil inventory at Cushing will likely continue to put pressure on crude oil prices. Likewise, record US and global inventories should add pressure to crude oil prices.
Lower oil prices affect the revenues of US upstream companies like Hess Corporation (HES), ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). ETFs such as the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY) and the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX ETF (FXN) are also influenced by the rise and fall of energy prices.
Why are inventories rising? We’ll look into this in the next part of this series.
Russian, Saudi Arabian, and US Oil Production: Effect on Prices
Crude oil market
Crude oil inventories rise due to an increase in the supply of crude oil, and crude oil supply rises due to a rise in crude oil production. The key reason for the fall in crude oil prices is record production from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
Enlarge GraphSaudi Arabia reached peak production for 2015 in June. Its peak production came in at 10.6 MMbpd. Russia saw its peak production of 10.8 MMbpd in October. Likewise, the United States reached its peak production of 9.6 MMbpd in April. The tussle for market share and lower oil prices motivated these countries to produce more oil.
Historic perspective
US production averaged 6.7 MMbpd in 2011. The United States’ current production of 9.3 MMbpd is 2.6 MMbpd more than the levels seen in 2011. Russia’s production averaged around 9.7 MMbpd in 2011, and Saudi Arabia’s production averaged 9.8 MMbpd. Thus, the cumulative rise in production between 2011 and 2015 was 4.1 MMbpd.
However, demand has increased slowly in comparison to the production growth. As a result, the record production from three countries led to the fall of oil prices around the world. The fall of oil prices affected companies like Petrobras (PBR), Saudi Aramco, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Eni (ENI), PetroChina Company (PTR), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Gazprom (OGZPY). Oil prices also affect ETFs like the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX Fund (FXN) and the iShares US Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ).
Outlook
Non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries like Russia are not interested in curbing oil production. However, there is speculation that Saudi Arabia is interested in curbing oil production in the future. However, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar strongly believe that OPEC doesn’t have the advantage of a swing producer, and the market will provide equilibrium to oil prices.
OPEC member Iran wants individual quotas for OPEC member nations, as it wants to scale up production by 1 MMbpd. Iran wants Saudi Arabia and Iraq to curb their production, as they have taken advantage of Iran’s sanctions over the years. Further, Venezuela wants to see a ceiling for crude oil prices.
US production has slowed down due to lower oil prices. However, if oil prices rise, US production will increase, too. Manipulation of oil prices could push oil prices to rally in the short term.
In the next part of this series, we’ll explore oil rig count as an indicator of oil production.
Will the US Crude Oil Rig Count Add Pessimism to the Market?
US crude oil rig count
Baker Hughes (BHI) is scheduled to release its weekly crude oil rig count tomorrow. Last week, Baker Hughes reported that the crude oil rig count fell by nine rigs to 555 for the week ending November 27, 2015. The active US crude oil rig count fell for the 13th consecutive week. During this period, the crude oil rig count fell by 120 rigs.
Enlarge GraphRelationship between crude oil rig count and crude oil prices
Drilling activity is the reflection of the oil producer’s confidence about the stability of oil prices. Higher drilling activity means oil producers are confident about higher oil prices. The current rig count is 65% less than the level of 1,572 rigs seen in 2014. Lower drilling activity affects oil drillers like Baker Hughes, Schlumberger (SLB), Superior Energy Services (SPN), and Halliburton Company (HAL).
Oil prices have fallen more than 60% since June 2014. The fall in prices is directly factored into drilling activity. The active number of US crude oil rigs peaked at 1,609 in October 2014 and bottomed out at 555 rigs on November 27, 2015.
Outlook
The current bearish momentum of prices and drilling activity suggests that drilling activity could slowly fall further. US production could slow down to 9 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in the short term. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) projects that US production could average 8.9 MMbpd in 2016. Slowing production could support oil prices. However, global oversupply and record inventory could overshadow the marginally slowing production.
ETFs like the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX Fund (FXN), and the iShares US Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ) are also influenced by the rise and fall of oil prices. Read the next part of this series to understand long-term price trends.
Crude Oil Price Projections for 2016
Price channel
January WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures rose above the psychological mark of $40 per barrel in yesterday’s trade. Prices have been oscillating between a narrow range of $39 per barrel and $42 per barrel for the past month. The December OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting and US inventory data are swinging crude oil prices.
Enlarge GraphSupport and resistance
Long-term lower crude oil prices and rising demand from India could benefit oil prices. Crude oil prices could see resistance at $48 per barrel. Prices tested this mark in November 2015. on the other hand, long-term oversupply concerns and record global inventory could lead oil prices to fall further.
Crude oil price estimates
Bearish sentiment pushed Barclays to cut its oil price forecast by $3 per barrel for Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2016. Brent oil is expected to average $60 per barrel in 2016, and WTI is expected to average $56 per barrel in 2016. Likewise, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) projects that US crude oil prices will average $51 per barrel in 2016 and Brent oil will average $56 per barrel in 2016.
OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the IEA (International Energy Agency) expect oil prices to trade around $80 per barrel over the long term. Oil prices have factored in almost all the negative fundamental factors. Thus, the current oil market could determine the bottom.
The crude oil price graph above and key moving averages suggest that crude oil prices could trade lower in the short term. Lower crude oil prices will impact oil and gas producers like Noble Energy (NBL), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR), and Apache Corporation (APA).
The volatility in the market also affects ETFs such as the iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO) and the PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum Portfolio (PXI).
For an in-depth look at the oil and gas sector, visit Market Realist’s Energy and Power page.
'뉴스-미국제외 > 석유,원자재' 카테고리의 다른 글
| 국제 油價(WTI) 33달러, 生死의 분기점 (0) | 2015.12.15 |
|---|---|
| 셰일가스 딴지 걸기 (0) | 2015.12.10 |
| "사우디 페그제 포기하면 유가 25달러로 추락"<BoA-메릴> (0) | 2015.12.10 |
| OPEC 감산 합의 실패…"유가 더 내려간다" (0) | 2015.12.08 |
| 가라앉는 국제유가…달러-원 밀어올릴 핵심이슈 (0) | 2015.12.08 |