트럼프, 순지지율 -18까지 하락…"3% 성장 못하면 재선 실패"

트럼프, 순지지율 -18까지 하락…"3% 성장 못하면 재선 실패"

 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 현재 지지율 수준을 유지한다면 재선을 위해선 경제성장률이 3%는 나와야 할 것이라는 분석이 나왔다.

미국 야후파이낸스의 릭 뉴먼 선임 칼럼니스트는 24일(현지시각) 기고문에서 로버트 뮬러 특검 보고서가 발표된 직후 트럼프 대통령의 순지지율은 마이너스(-) 20에 육박했다며 재선을 하고 싶다면 통계적으로 미국 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률이 3%에달해야 한다고 분석했다.

미국 정치전문지 폴리티코와 모닝컨설트가 뮬러 보고서 발표 직후 실시한 여론조사에서 트럼프 대통령의 지지율은 기존 조사 때보다 5%포인트 하락한 39%를 기록했다.지지하지 않는다는 응답률은 57%에 달해 순지지율은 -18까지 확대됐다.

-18은 트럼프 대통령의 역대 순지지율 중 가장 낮은 수치다. 지금까지 그는 -17을 세 번 기록한 바 있다.

뉴먼은 "재선 레이스 시기에 대통령의 지지율과 경제성장률은 직접 연관성을 드러내 왔다"며 "유권자들은 각자 삶의 질이 어떻게 변하느냐에 따라 대통령을 재신임하거나 거부했던 만큼 득표율은 경제 상황을 명백히 반영한다"고 말했다.

미국 버지니아대학교 정치학센터의 앨런 아브라모위츠 교수는 미국 GDP 성장률과 대통령의 순지지율 사이에 유의미한 연관성을 포착했다.

그의 연구에 따르면 트럼프 대통령의 순지지율은 그의 재임 기간 통상 -10 안팎에서 움직였는데 이 상태로 그가 2020년 대선에서 재선에 성공하려면 적어도 2%의 GDP 성장률을 달성해야 하는 것으로 나타났다.

하지만 트럼프 대통령의 순지지율이 -20까지 벌어진다면 그가 당선권인 270명의 선거인단을 확보하기 위해 GDP 성장률이 3%는 돼야 하는 것으로 전망됐다.

미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)는 미국 GDP 성장률이 올해 2.1%, 내년엔 1.9%를 기록할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 국제 신용평가사 무디스도 올해 2.3%, 내년엔 1.6%까지 성장률이 미끄러질 것으로 내다보는 상황이다.

뉴먼은 "이런 흐름을 고려할 때 트럼프 대통령은 재선을 위해서라도 경기부양책을 다시 꺼내 들 가능성이 크다"며 "향후 18개월간 민주당이 장악한 하원은 뮬러 특검 보고서를 깊게 파고들 것이고 트럼프 대통령에게 우호적인 어떤 협조도 거부할 것이기 때문에 그는 혼자 힘으로 경기를 부양할 방안을 마련해야 할 것"이라고 전망했다.

http://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=4027006

Trump’s falling approval could lead to economic gimmicks

Rick Newman

Senior Columnist

Yahoo FinanceApril 24, 2019

President Trump’s approval rating seems to have taken a hit from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.

In a Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted right after the release of the Mueller report, Trump’s approval rating fell 5 percentage points, to 39%, while his disapproval rating rose to 57%. The net approval of -18 is the lowest of Trump’s presidency. He hit -17 three times, most recently after the government shutdown that ended in January.

Trump’s approval could recover, if Democrats seem to overpoliticize the Mueller findings or there are other developments more favorable to Trump. But Trump’s penchant for compounding bad news with crude attacks on critics and overzealous policy thrusts suggests he could be just as unpopular a year from now, when the 2020 election is in full swing.

A president’s approval rating during a reelection campaign has a direct connection to the economy. It obviously reflects the condition of the economy, since voters reward or punish the president for changes in their own quality of life. But it can also lead a president to goose the economy if he feels his reelection odds require such a boost. That could be the position Trump finds himself in by the middle of 2020.

Research by Alan Abramowitz for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics finds a meaningful correlation between GDP growth, a president’s net approval rating and the number of electoral votes he’s likely to win in a reelection race. Trump’s net approval has been in the range of -10 for most of his presidency, which suggests he would need at least 2% GDP growth by the middle of 2020 to win the required 270 electoral votes. It’s possible the economy will be growing at such a pace around then.

If Trump’s net approval widens to -20, which it is close to now, he’d need 3% GDP growth to hit 270 electoral votes, according to the Abramowitz model. And few economists think the economy will be that strong next year. The Federal Reserve expects GDP growth of 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2020. Moody’s Analytics forecasts growth of 2.3% this year and just 1.6% next year.

Boosting growth ahead of election

Presidents can pull a few levers to try to boost growth in time for an election. Richard Nixon repeatedly pressured Fed Chairman Arthur Burns to cut interest rates in the early 1970s, to prime spending and growth during Nixon’s 1972 reelection bid. Nixon seems to have gotten his way, since the Fed did, in fact, cut rates on the timeline Nixon wanted. But economic historians think the Nixon Fed went too far, with needlessly low rates causing rampant inflation that plagued the economy for a decade.

Trump clearly wants the Fed to lower rates, a la Nixon. He has beseeched Fed chair Jerome Powell to do just that and tried to get dovish loyalists appointed to the Fed’s policymaking committee. Unlike Nixon, Trump hasn’t gotten the Fed to do his bidding, and the Senate has indicated it may not approve Trump puppets for key Fed posts. But Trump has another year or so to keep pressing for rate cuts in time to stimulate the economy by November 2020.

Trump could also keep a trade surprise in his back pocket and spring it in time to boost financial markets close to the 2020 election. Trump has imposed tariffs on a wide range of imports, sucking more than $50 billion out of the US economy and causing uncertainty that may limit investment and hiring. He could remove those tariffs at any time, creating a kind of relief rally in sectors most harmed by his protectionist trade policy. The timing would make most sense in the months leading up to the election.

Oil prices are another thing to watch. Trump’s new sanctions on Iran have pushed oil prices higher, with U.S. gasoline prices likely to settle above $3 per gallon this summer. A president running for reelection might want to brag about gas prices of $2.50 or lower. To push gas prices down, Trump could release oil from the U.S. strategic reserve a couple months before the election, which would push prices lower. He could also cut a deal with Saudi Arabia—whose brutal human-rights policies he has largely overlooked—to pump more oil.

As for additional tax cuts or anything requiring Congress to pass legislation, it seems out of the question. The House is obviously going to spend the next 18 months investigating dozens of leads Mueller dropped in their laps, and probably some he didn’t, with impeachment a possibility. It’s hard to imagine the Democrat-controlled House voting for anything that might help Trump look good. That leaves Trump on his own to boost the economy, or find some way to raise his standing among voters, so he doesn’t have to.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-falling-approval-could-lead-to-economic-gimmicks-183008737.html