주간 전망·일정

- 11월 17일(월)

정석_수학 2014. 11. 15. 16:53



- 11월 17일(월)


0850        日   Q3        국내총생산(GDP) 잠정치 

0901        英   11월      라이트무브 주택가격지수                    

0901        英   Q4        영국산업연맹(CBI) 중소기업 추세 조사 

0930        濠   10월      신규자동차판매 

1900        EU   9월       무역수지

2230        美   11월      엠파이어스테이트 제조업지수              

2315        美   10월      산업생산·설비가동률         

N/A         美             찰스 에번스 시카고 연방준비은행 총재 연설

N/A         獨   11월      분데스방크 월간보고서

N/A         EU             마리오 드라기 유럽중앙은행(ECB) 총재 유럽의회 연설 

N/A         中   10월      외국인직접투자(FDI)


- 11월 18일(화)


0800        濠   9월       콘퍼런스보드 경기선행지수 

0930        濠   11월      호주중앙은행(RBA) 통화정책회의 의사록 

1030        中   10월      주택가격

1725        濠             글렌 스티븐스 RBA 총재 연설 

1830        英   9월       onS 주택가격지수 

1830        英   10월      소비자물가지수(CPI)                    

1830        英   10월      생산자물가지수(PPI)                    

1900        獨   11월      ZEW 경기기대지수                  

2145        美   11/15     ICSC-골드만삭스 연쇄점판매지수            

2230        美   10월      PPI                  

2255        美   11/15     존슨 레드북 소매판매지수               

2300        美   9월       해외자본수지(TIC)

2400(19일)  美   Q3        온라인 소매판매

2400(19일)  美   11월      NAHB 주택시장지수               

0630(19일)  美   11/14     API 주간석유보고서               

N/A         美             국제통화기금(IMF) 통계 관련 포럼  

N/A         日   9월       최종 고용보고서

N/A         日   11월      일본은행(BOJ) 금융정책결정회의 1일차 

N/A         EU   10월      유럽 신규 상용차 등록대수

                           

- 11월 19일(수)


0830        濠   10월      MI 경기선행지수

1330        日   9월       전산업지수

1400        日   10월      철강생산

1400        日   9월       경기선행지수 수정치

1430        日   10월      도쿄·전국 백화점판매              

1800        EU   9월       경상수지          

1830        英   11월      영란은행(BOE) 통화정책위원회 의사록                

1830        英   11월      산업동향 

1900        EU   9월       건설 생산 

2100        美   11/14     모기지은행협회(MBA) 주간 모기지 신청건수                 

2230        美   10월      신규주택착공·주택착공허가                       

0030(20일)  美   11/14     에너지정보청(EIA) 주간 석유재고              

0400(20일)  美   10월      연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 의사록

N/A         英             조지 오스본 영국 재무장관 연설 

N/A         日   11월      BOJ 금융정책결정회의 2일차 

N/A         EU             ECB 정책위원회 회의

 

- 11월 20일(목)


0850        日   10월      무역수지 예비치 

1035        日   11월      마르키트/JMMA 제조업 구매관리자지수(PMI) 예비치 

1045        中   11월      HSBC 제조업 PMI 예비치 

1400        日   10월      슈퍼마켓판매

1400        日   11월      BOJ 월간보고서 

1500        日   10월      기계류수주 수정치                   

1600        獨   10월      PPI                                         

1730        獨   11월      마르키트 PMI 예비치                      

1800        EU   11월      마르키트 PMI 예비치                         

1830        英   10월      소매판매       

1830        英   10월      모기지대출협회(CML) 모기지대출 총액        

2000        英   11월      영국산업연맹(CBI) 산업현황보고서                   

2230        美   10월      실질소득

2230        美   10월      CPI                     

2230        美             주간곡물수출                     

2230        美   11/15     주간 신규실업보험 청구자수   

2345        美   11월      마르키트 제조업 PMI 예비치                      

2400(21일)  美   10월      기존주택판매             

2400(21일)  美   10월      콘퍼런스보드 경기동향지수                 

2400(21일)  美   11월      필라델피아 연은 제조업지수

2400(21일)  美   11/08     DJ-BTMU 경기지표                                     

0030(21일)  美   11/14     EIA 주간 천연가스재고                 

0630(21일)  美             연방준비제도(Fed) 할인창구대출

0630(21일)  美             외국중앙은행 미 국채 보유량

    

- 11월 21일(금)


0901        英   10월      나이트프랭크 주택가격동향지수

1830        英   10월      공공부문 순차입·순상환                

0100(22일)  美   11월      캔자스시티 연은 제조업활동지수 

N/A         獨             프랑크푸르트 유럽은행회의

N/A         EU             유로존 재무장관 협의체(유로그룹) 회의




Updates:

    1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 14:00 & Friday, 8:00. ECB President Mario Dragh is expected to testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels and speak in Frankfurt. He could be questioned about the differences within the governing council, that came out to the open. He could also refer to the confirmation of low inflation and poor growth. Market volatility is expected.
    2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK inflation dropped to a five-year low of 1.2% in September following 1.5% the prior month. The main price decline occurred in the energy and food sectors. Despite the strong growth in the UK economy, inflationary pressures remain subdued; it is unlikely that the BoE will raise rates before 2015. UK inflation is expected to remain at 1.2%.
    3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday 9:00. Investors’ sentiment plunged in October to its lowest level since November 2012, reaching minus 3.6 points. The ZEW index fell by 10.5 points negative territory, for the first time. Economists expect confidence to remain low over the medium term. Recent disappointing data such as factory orders, industrial production, and foreign trade have contributed to the sharp decline. German economic sentiment is expected to reach 0.9 points this time.
    4. US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. Producer prices for finished goods declined in September by 0.1% following an unchanged reading in the previous month. Economists expected a price rise of 0.1%. Meanwhile, core PPI excluding the volatile food and energy sectors came out flat. Unadjusted, the producer price index for final demand rose 1.6% for the 12 months that ended in September. Producer prices are expected to drop again by 0.1%.
    5. Japan rate decision: Wednesday.  The Bank of Japan surprised markets in October while deciding to expand its massive stimulus spending, admitting that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as expected following a sales tax hike in April. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda announced that the expansion was done to ensure the early achievement of the 2% inflation target and end deflation. Analysts were not expecting further easing measures in such short period.
    6. US Building Permits: Wednesday, 12:30. US Building permits increased in September 1.5% to an annualized rate of 1.02 million, suggesting the U.S. economy continues to strengthen despite the global slowdown. Building of multifamily projects such as condominiums and townhomes jumped 16.7 percent to an annual rate of 371,000. Work on single-family properties rose 1.1 percent to a 646,000 rate in September from 639,000 the prior month. The positive trend is also evident in factory production and the job market, posting the lowest level of jobless claims in 14 years.  US Building permits are predicted to reach 1.04 million.
    7. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed not only ended QE in October, but also had a hawkish message to offer markets, with an upbeat wording on the labor market (“solid job gains”) as well as a lack of real worry regarding inflation. In addition, there was one dovish dissenter for a change. The minutes could reveal the differences between the various members, and could show if they lean to waiting more regarding the rates or moving sooner. September’s minutes were relatively dovish in comparison to the statement. Will this happen again?
    8. US Inflation data: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices increased mildly in September, showing weak inflation pressures, providing the Federal Reserve ample room to keep interest rates low for an extended period. CPI increased by 0.1% after a 0.2% fall in the previous month. Economists expected a flat reading in September. Sluggish wage growth helped to keep prices nearly unchanged. Meanwhile core CPI excluding food and energy prices, gained 0.1% in September, while the year-on-year change held steady at 1.7%. CPI is expected to drop 0.1% while core CPI is predicted to gain 0.2%.
    9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.  The Labor Department release showed a rise of 12,000 in initial claims last week, reaching 290K. The increase was larger than expected, but remained below 300,000 for ninth straight week indicating the US job market is stronger than ever. Another good sign was a rise in the number of Americans quitting their jobs under their own volition, suggesting stronger confidence in the labor market condition. The number of jobless claims is expected to decline to 286K.
    10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. The manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region continued to weaken in October, falling to 20.7, after September’s reading of 22.5. However despite the modest decline, Philadelphia manufacturing still shows growth. New orders edged up to 17.3, compared to September’s reading of 15.5; the employment index declined to 12.1, following 21.2 in September; and the six-month outlook dropped to 54.5, compared the precious reading of 56.0. The manufacturing sector in Philadelphia us expected to reach 18.9 this time.

    That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

    *All times are GMT.




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