Morgan Stanley Upgrades Taiwan Stocks, Lowers Korea (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9bTQWRjup3I

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Taiwan Stocks, Lowers Korea (Update1)

By Weiyi Lim - January 21, 2011 01:35 EST

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Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley recommended investors boost their holdings of Taiwan stocks on the island’s “subdued” inflationary pressures and reduce South Korean equities on higher policy risk and the prospect of lower earnings growth.

“The growth versus inflation mix appears more favorable in Taiwan than Korea,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Jonathan F. Garner wrote in a report today. The brokerage upgraded Taiwan to “overweight” from “equal-weight” and downgraded South Korea to “equal-weight” from “overweight.”

Taiwan’s Taiex index climbed 10 percent in the past 12 months, lagging behind a 20 percent advance by South Korea’s Kospi index, even as the island’s consumer prices grew on average less than a third of the pace of its North Asian neighbor over the past three months, according to Morgan Stanley. The brokerage said it expects benchmark interest rates to peak at 3.5 percent in South Korea versus 2.13 percent for Taiwan.

“All other things being equal, this more aggressive rate hike stance in Korea presents more of a threat to the domestically facing parts of the equity market,” the analysts wrote.

The Kospi sank 1.7 percent to 2,069.92 at the close today, the biggest loss since Nov. 11. Construction and transportation stocks led the declines. The Taiex dropped 0.8 percent to 8,954.38.

Earnings Revisions

Analysts have lowered their earnings estimates for South Korea in the near-term compared with the emerging markets average, while raising them for Taiwan, they wrote.

A further “weak spot” for Korea is the market’s “low dividend yield” compared with Asian neighbors excluding Japan and other emerging markets, Morgan Stanley said.

“Korea’s payout ratio of reported earnings of 13.5 percent currently is one of the lowest in emerging markets along with India and Russia,” the analysts wrote. “Taiwan’s payout ratio is 53.1 percent currently. The trailing dividend yield for Taiwan is currently 3.2 percent versus 1.1 percent for Korea and an Asia Pacific ex-Japan average of 2.6 percent.”

Taiwan is also expected to enter a “super-cycle” from 2011- 2020 as the island benefits from warmer ties with China, the brokerage said.

Relations between Taiwan and China, separated by the Taiwan Strait, are at the most cordial in more than 60 years after Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou dropped his predecessor’s pro- independence stance and made economic relations the priority of his administration. Taiwan last year signed a a trade accord with China to cut tariffs and increase access to services including banking, securities and insurance.

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모간스탠리 "韓 투자의견 하향..이익 감소에 단기 급등부담"

`비중확대`→`중립`으로 낮춰..이익 조정 등 순위 하락

대만은 `비중확대`로 상향..인플레 압력 작고 배당매력 커

입력시간 :2011.01.21 14:58

[이데일리 최한나 기자] 모간스탠리가 한국에 대한 투자의견을 `비중 확대(Over Weight)`에서 `중립 비중(Equal Weight)`로 하향 조정했다. 반대로 대만은 `중립`에서 `비중 확대`로 상향했다. 

모간스탠리는 21일 보고서에서 "자체 모델상 한국의 순위가 3위에서 10위로 밀렸다"고 밝혔다. 

그 이유로는 일단 이익 조정 면에서 순위가 5위에서 14위로 떨어졌다고 설명했다. 또 영업 사이클과 통화 면에서의 순위가 각각 12위에서 16위, 12위에서 15위로 하락했다고 소개했다. 

반대로 대만은 이익 성장 기대와 영업 사이클 면에서의 순위가 개선됐다고 비교했다. 특히 인플레이션 압력이 다른 아시아 국가와 달리 잠잠해진 점이 긍정적이라고 평가했다. 

이 증권사는 "두 시장의 올해 자기자본이익률(ROE) 전망치에 대한 컨센서스는 모두 14%"라면서도 "대만의 PBR은 한국에 비해 10년 평균치와 나란하게 그려진다"고 분석했다. 

이어 "특히 과거 평균 배당률이 한국은 1.1%로, 10년물 국고채 수익률의 23%에 불과하다"며 "대만은 배당률이 3.2%로, 채권 대비 수익률이 218%에 달한다"고 진단했다. 

또 "한국은 최근 가파르게 올라 기술적인 면에서도 매력이 덜하다"고 덧붙였다.XML