The upcoming holiday-shortened week is relatively light but is highlighted by the June employment situation on Friday. But earlier market movers include factory orders on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and ADP employment on Thursday.
U.S. Holiday: Independence Day. All Markets Closed.
Factory orders fell 1.2 percent in April as a price-fueled 0.6 percent rise for new orders of non-durable goods failed to offset a steep 3.6 percent retreat on the durable side where the monthly declines were wide and deep. More recently, durables orders in May rebounded 1.9 percent, following a 2.7 percent decline the month before. New durables orders excluding transportation also made a comeback, increasing 0.6 percent after a 0.4 percent drop in April. However, softer prices in the energy sector may weigh on the nondurables component of total factory orders for May. Factory orders Consensus Forecast for May 11: +1.0 percent Range: -0.3 to +2.1 percent
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in May rose 1.8 points to 54.6 with strength centered where it should be, that is in new orders which rose more than four points to 56.8. Also, the employment index accelerated nicely, up 2.1 points to a 54.0 level that for this report is very strong. ISM non-manufacturing composite index Consensus Forecast for June 11: 54.0 Range: 51.2 to 55.0
Initial jobless claims for the June 25 week nudged down only 1,000 to 428,000. The four-week average, up 500 in the week to 426,750, showed no change from the May 28 week. Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 7/2/11: 420,000 Range: 405,000 to 435,000
Nonfarm payroll employment in May grew a modest 54,000, following a revised 232,000 jump in April and a 194,000 increase in March. Sluggishness in payroll jobs was broad based. Private nonfarm payrolls advanced 83,000 in May, following a 251,000 increase in April. Government jobs contracted 29,000, following a 19,000 dip in April. This latest decrease was largely local government, led down by local government education. on a positive note, wage growth improved in May as average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent uptick in April. The average workweek for all workers in May held steady at 34.4 hours. Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate nudged up to 9.1 percent from 9.0 percent in April. Household employment actually rose 105,000 for the month but was outpaced by a 272,000 gain in the labor force. Nonfarm payrolls Consensus Forecast for June 11: 110,000 Range: 65,000 to 160,000 Private payrolls Consensus Forecast for June 11: 125,000 Range: 100,000 to 183,000 Unemployment rate Consensus Forecast for June 11: 9.1 percent Range: 9.0 to 9.2 percent Average workweek Consensus Forecast for June 11: 34.4 hours Range: 34.4 to 34.4 hours Average hourly earnings Consensus Forecast for June 11: +0.2 percent Range: +0.1 to +0.2 percent
Consumer credit outstanding in April rose a solid $6.3 billion to extend gains now to seven months in a row which is good news for the economy. But the gains were narrowly confined to non-revolving credit which rose $7.2 billion in the month for an eighth straight gain. The dominant factor in this category is vehicle sales which were strong through April but fell significantly in May, indicating a likely drop in non-revolving credit for the next report. Revolving credit, dominated by credit cards, fell $0.9 billion in April. Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for May 11: +$4.0 billion Range: -$2.0 billion to +$6.0 billion
R. Mark Rogers is the author of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Economic Indicators, Penguin Books, 2009.
Econoday Senior Writer Mark Pender contributed to this article.
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