주간 전망·일정

주간전망 , ( 7.18 ~ 7.22 )

정석_수학 2011. 7. 18. 17:04













http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=18&month=7&year=2011&cust=wsj-us

Monday Jul 18






 


Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

 



 

Weekly Bill Settlement

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET



Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET










Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
 
 
Equity Settlement
7-21-11
Equity Settlement
7-22-11
Equity Settlement
7-25-11
Equity Settlement
7-26-11
Equity Settlement
7-27-11







http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110718.html


http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110719.html


http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110720.html


http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110721.html


http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110722.html





http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/201129.html





DateTime (ET)StatisticForActualBriefing ForecastMarket ExpectsPriorRevised From
Jul 189:00 AMNet Long-Term TIC FlowsMay-NANA$30.6B-
Jul 1810:00 AMNAHB Housing Market IndexJul-141413-
Jul 198:30 AMHousing StartsJun-570K570K560K-
Jul 198:30 AMBuilding PermitsJun-600K609K609K612K
Jul 207:00 AMMBA Mortgage Purchase Index07/16-NANA-5.1%-
Jul 2010:00 AMExisting Home SalesJun-4.90M4.93M4.81M-
Jul 2010:30 AMCrude Inventories07/16-NANA-3.124M-
Jul 218:30 AMInitial Claims07/16-390K411K405K-
Jul 218:30 AMContinuing Claims07/9-3700K3700K3727K-
Jul 2110:00 AMPhiladelphia FedJul-0.00.0-7.70-
Jul 2110:00 AMLeading IndicatorsJun-0.3%0.3%0.8%-
Jul 2110:00 AMFHFA Housing Price IndexMay-NANA0.8%-

More in-depth information is available from Briefing.com, including "live" intra-day market analysis of the U.S. stock and bond markets, technology stocks, economic releases, earnings reports, and day trading highlights.







Looking Ahead: July 18 through July 22, 2011

Central Bank activities
July 19CanadaBank of Canada Monetary Policy Announcement
July 20UKBank of England Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The following indicators will be released this week...
Europe
July 19GermanyZEW Survey (July)
July 20GermanyProducer Price Index (June)
July 21UKRetail Sales (June)
July 22GermanyIfo Business Survey (July)
Asia/Pacific
July 21JapanMerchandise Trade Balance (June)
Americas
July 22CanadaConsumer Price Index (June)
CanadaRetail Sales (May)




Looking Ahead: Week of July 18 through 22 

Although this week’s calendar is relatively light, investors will focus on key housing data.  Housing starts are on tap for Tuesday, existing home sales will post at mid-week with FHFA house prices on Thursday.  Also garnering market attention Thursday are jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing, and leading indicators.


 

Tuesday

Housing starts in May rebounded 3.5 percent, following an 8.8 percent drop in April.  May’s annualized pace of 0.560 million units was down 3.4 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in May was led by a 3.7 percent rebound in the single-family component, following a 3.3 percent decline in April.  The volatile multifamily component made a partial comeback, rising 2.9 percent after falling 21.7 percent the month before.  Housing permits pointed to a little more optimism on the part of homebuilders, jumping 8.7 percent in May, following a 1.9 percent decrease in April.  But the fundamentals are unchanged.  There is still enormous supply on the market and labor markets are weak, keeping potential homebuyers on the sidelines.

 

Housing starts Consensus Forecast for June 11: 575 million-unit rate

Range: 550 million to 600 million-unit rate


 

Wednesday

Existing home sales fell 3.8 percent in May to a 4.81 million annual rate. The year-on-year rate deepened to minus 15.3 percent from April's minus 13.8 percent. Months’ supply rose to 9.3 months from April's 9.0 months.  Prices did rise 3.4 percent for the median to $166,500 but the heavy supply does not point to much pricing power in the months ahead.  However, severe weather may have played a role as the month's sales contraction.  Looking ahead, we may get a bump up in sales in June as May’s pending existing home sales surged 8.2 percent (though following a large 11.3 percent plunge the month before).

 

Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for June 11: 4.90 million-unit rate

Range: 4.80 to 5.20 million-unit rate


 

Thursday

Initial jobless claims in the July 9 week fell 22,000 to a level of 405,000 but the period is a shortened one that includes the July 4 holiday. Another factor is uncertainty over the week-to-week timing of shutdowns, including auto retooling, in the manufacturing sector, a seasonal factor that lowers claims after adjustment and always makes for uncertain readings at this time of year. one factor that clearly inflated claims was the government shutdown in Minnesota which added 11,500, before adjustment, to the week's total. A look at the four-week average, especially important for uncertain periods, is favorable, down 3,750 to 423,250.

 

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 7/16/11: 415,000

Range: 385,000 to 430,000


 

The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Surveyfor June posted at minus 7.7 for the first negative reading since September and was down 11.6 points from May. Weakness stood out in new orders at minus 7.6 and down from a reading of 5.4 and unfilled orders at minus 16.3 and down from minus 7.8. Shipments and employment both rose in the month but at a slower rate. The decline in orders points to further slowing, if not contraction, in the near term.

 

Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for July 11: 5.0

Range: -4.8 to 10.0


 

The FHFA home price index in April unexpectedly rose, breaking a string of monthly declines. The FHFA purchase only house price index rose 0.8 percent in April, following a 0.4 percent decrease in March. April’s gain followed six consecutive monthly losses.  on a year-on-year basis, the FHFA HPI is down 5.7 percent versus down 6.2 percent in March. 


 

The Conference Board's index of leading indicators jumped 0.8 percent in May, following a 0.4 percent decline the month before.   As usual for many months, the rate spread between the 10-year T-note and fed funds rate led strength for the month, adding 0.32 percentage points.  Next, consumer expectations added 0.23 percentage points with building permits contributing 0.22 percentage points to the overall index gain.  Positives also came from lower initial jobless claims and increases in new orders for consumer goods, new orders for nondefense capital goods, stock prices, and money supply.  The only negative contribution came from vendor performance.  The average workweek in manufacturing had a zero contribution.  The coincident index has been sluggish in recent months, edging up only 0.1 percent in both May and April.

 

Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for June 11: +0.3 percent

Range: +0.1 to +0.6 percent


 

R. Mark Rogers is the author of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Economic Indicators, Penguin Books, 2009.


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<표> 美 주간 경제지표 발표 일정
  
(기간:7월18일∼7월22일, 한국시각 기준)
┌───┬─────────────┬────┬────┬────┬────┐
│ 일자 │      경 제 지 표         │발표시간│  기간  │ 예상치 │ 이전치 │
├───┼─────────────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 7/18 │NAHB 주택시장지수         │ 23:00  │   7월  │      14│      13│
├───┼─────────────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 7/19 │주택착공건수              │ 21:30  │   6월  │ 575,000│ 560,000│
│      │건축허가                  │ 21:30  │   6월  │ 597,000│ 609,000│
│      │주택착공건수(전월비)      │ 21:30  │   6월  │   +2.7%│   +3.5%│
│      │건축허가(")               │ 21:30  │   6월  │   -2.0%│   +8.7%│
├───┼─────────────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 7/20 │MBA 주택융자 신청지수     │ 20:00  │ 7월15일│       -│   -5.1%│
│      │기존주택매매              │ 23:00  │   6월  │   4.95M│   4.81M│
│      │기존주택매매(전월비)      │ 23:00  │   6월  │   +2.9%│   -3.8%│
├───┼─────────────┼────┴────┼────┼────┤
│ 7/21 │신규 실업수당 신청건수    │ 21:30  │ 7월16일│ 410,000│ 405,000│
│      │주택가격지수(전월비)      │ 23:00  │   5월  │   +0.1%│   +0.8%│
│      │경기선행지수              │ 23:00  │   6월  │   +0.2%│   +0.8%│
│      │필라델피아 연준지수       │ 23:00  │   7월  │    +2.0│    -7.7│
└───┴─────────────┴────┴────┴────┴────┘

(서울=연합뉴스)
(끝) 

<저작권자(c)연합뉴스. 무단전재-재배포금지.>            2011-07-18 06:30  송고





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<표> 주요국 주간 경제지표 발표 일정
  
(기간:7월18일∼22일, 한국시각 기준)
┌───┬───┬───────────┬───┬───┬────┬────┐
│ 일자 │ 국가 │    경  제  지  표    │ 발표 │ 기간 │ 예상치 │ 이전치 │
│      │      │                      │ 시간 │      │        │        │
├───┼───┼───────────┼───┼───┼────┼────┤
│ 7/18 │ 호주 │신규자동차판매(전월비)│ 10:30│  6월 │       -│   -7.6%│
├───┼───┼───────────┼───┼───┼────┼────┤
│ 7/19 │ 일본 │전국백화점판매(전년비)│ 14:30│  6월 │       -│       -│
│      │ 일본 │도쿄백화점판매(")     │ 14:30│  6월 │       -│       -│
│      │ 홍콩 │실업률                │ 17:30│  6월 │   +3.5%│   +3.5%│
│      │ 홍콩 │종합금리              │   -  │  6월 │       -│  +0.26%│
│      │브라질│실업률                │ 21:00│  6월 │   +6.1%│   +6.4%│
│      │  EU  │건설생산량(전월비)    │ 18:00│  5월 │       -│   +0.7%│
│      │ 독일 │ZEW 현황 조사치       │ 18:00│  7월 │    85.0│    87.6│
├───┼───┼───────────┼───┼───┼────┼────┤
│ 7/20 │ 일본 │동행지수              │ 14:00│  5월 │       -│   106.5│
│      │ 일본 │선행지수              │ 14:00│  5월 │       -│    99.8│
│      │ 일본 │편의점판매(전년비)    │ 16:00│  6월 │       -│   +5.7%│
│      │ 호주 │WPAC 선행지수(전월비) │ 09:30│  5월 │       -│   +0.2%│
│      │ 호주 │DEWR 전문직 구인(")   │ 10:00│  7월 │       -│   -2.0%│
│      │브라질│금리 공시(~21일)      │   -  │ 7/20 │ +12.50%│ +12.25%│
│      │  EU  │유로권소비자기대지수  │ 23:00│  7월 │   -10.0│    -9.8│
│      │ 독일 │생산자물가지수(전월비)│ 15:00│  6월 │    0.0%│    0.0%│
├───┼───┼───────────┼───┼───┼────┼────┤
│ 7/21 │ 일본 │상품매매수지총액      │ 08:50│  6월  -¥149.0B -¥855.8B│
│      │ 일본 │조정상품거래수지      │ 08:50│  6월  -¥250.4B -¥474.6B│
│      │ 일본 │무역수지-수출총액(전년비)08:50│  6월 │    -4.1│   -10.3│
│      │ 일본 │무역수지-수입총액(")  │ 08:50│  6월 │   +11.0│   +12.3│
│      │ 일본 │전체공업활동지수(전월비) 13:30│  5월 │   +1.8%│   +1.5%│
│      │ 호주 │NAB 경기기대지수      │ 10:30│ 2분기│       -│      11│
│      │ 호주 │RBA 외환거래          │ 10:30│  6월 │       -│    601M│
│      │ 홍콩 │CPI(전년비)           │ 17:30│  6월 │   +5.6%│   +5.2%│
│      │ 인도 │식품도매물가지수      │ 15:30│ 7/09 │       -│  +8.31%│
│      │ 인도 │유류도매물가지수      │ 15:30│ 7/09 │       -│ +11.89%│
│      │ 인도 │생필품도매물가지수    │ 15:30│ 7/09 │       -│ +11.58%│
│      │  EU  │유로권경상수지        │ 17:00│  5월 │       -│   -6.5B│
│      │  EU  │PMI 복합              │ 17:00│  7월 │    52.6│    53.3│
│      │  EU  │PMI 제조업            │ 17:00│  7월 │    51.5│    52.0│
│      │  EU  │PMI 서비스            │ 17:00│  7월 │    53.2│    53.7│
│      │ 영국 │전국 소비자기대지수   │ 08:01│  6월 │      49│      55│
│      │ 영국 │공공재정              │ 17:30│  6월 │   17.0B│   11.1B│
│      │ 영국 │공공부문순차입금      │ 17:30│  6월 │   10.2B│   15.2B│
│      │ 영국 │소매매출(전월비)      │ 17:30│  6월 │   +0.7%│   -1.6%│
│      │      │-자동차 연료 제외     │      │      │        │        │
│      │ 독일 │PMI 제조업            │ 16:30│  7월 │    54.1│    54.6│
│      │ 독일 │PMI 서비스            │ 16:30│  7월 │    56.1│    56.7│
│      │프랑스│PMI 제조업            │ 16:00│  7월 │    52.1│    52.5│
│      │프랑스│PMI 서비스            │ 16:00│  7월 │    55.5│    56.1│
├───┼───┼───────────┼───┼───┼────┼────┤
│ 7/22 │ 일본 │슈퍼마켓판매(전년비)  │ 14:00│  6월 │       -│   -1.4%│
│      │ 호주 │수입물가지수(전분기비)│ 10:30│ 2분기│   -1.1%│   +1.4%│
│      │ 호주 │수출물가지수(")       │ 10:30│ 2분기│   +4.5%│   +5.2%│
│      │  EU  │산업신규수주(전월비)  │ 18:00│  5월 │  +10.3%│   +9.0%│
│      │ 독일 │IFO-기업환경          │ 17:00│  7월 │   113.6│   114.5│
│      │ 독일 │IFO-현재평가치        │ 17:00│  7월 │   122.2│   123.3│
│      │ 독일 │IFO-기대지수          │ 17:00│  7월 │   105.0│   106.3│
│      │프랑스│소유기업생산전망      │ 15:45│  7월 │       -│      14│
│      │프랑스│생산예상지수          │ 15:45│  7월 │       -│      13│
│      │프랑스│경기기대지수          │ 15:45│  7월 │     107│     109│
└───┴───┴───────────┴───┴───┴────┴────┘

(서울=연합뉴스)
(끝) 

<저작권자(c)연합뉴스. 무단전재-재배포금지.>            2011-07-18 06:30  송고









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