Taiwan’s Vote for Political Freedom

Taiwan’s Vote for Political Freedom

The island’s population is warier than ever of unification with China.

Jan. 14, 2016 7:50 p.m. ET

Taiwan goes to the polls Saturday, and there isn’t much suspense about the outcome. The next president will almost certainly be Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who leads by double digits in the polls. Behind this turn are a weak economy and mounting concerns about China’s designs on the democratic island of 23 million.

Current President Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party (KMT) took office in 2008 promising to build trade ties with China while protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty. He thought cross-Strait detente would help the economy and advance the KMT’s long-standing position that the two sides of the Strait should unify sooner or later. His economic logic was reasonable, but he misread public sentiment toward China and has provoked a backlash.

The student-led Sunflower Movement erupted in 2014, culminating in an occupation of the legislature that blocked a services trade agreement with China. Mr. Ma’s previous 22 cross-Strait trade, travel and tourism deals boosted Taiwanese gains from Chinese economic growth, but they also raised fears about vulnerability to coercion. Mr. Ma still tried forcing the services pact through without amendments, leading to midterm election losses.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s economy has weakened along with China’s, and new Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s crackdown on Hong Kong, where civil liberties are supposed to be protected under the “one country, two systems” framework, has made Taiwanese even less eager for unification. Some 60% now identify exclusively as “Taiwanese,” up from 18% in 1992, while only 3.5% identify as Chinese, down from 26% in 1992. The young especially identify as democratic and non-Chinese. A recent poll of voters under 30 found 57% back the DPP, versus 11% for the KMT.

DPP campaign rhetoric emphasizes pocketbook issues (jobs, housing), but opposition to unification is one of its founding principles. When it held the presidency from 2000 to 2008 under Chen Shui-bian, he pushed for United Nations membership and a referendum on formal independence. This infuriated Beijing and also Washington, which opposes either side unilaterally seeking to change the cross-Strait status quo.

Ms. Tsai, a former trade negotiator, pledges to maintain the status quo and pursue “stable, peaceful” ties with China. But she is unlikely to meet Beijing’s demand to endorse the so-called 1992 Consensus, under which KMT and Chinese officials are said to have agreed that there is only “one China,” even if Taipei and Beijing disagree on its definition. Beijing has threatened to suspend trade talks unless she comes around.

The majority of Taiwanese support good relations with China, but this election will also be one more statement that the people of this vibrant and healthy democracy want to maintain their political freedom.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwans-vote-for-political-freedom-1452819059