美 금리인상은 거의 끝?…옐런, 2가지 핵심전제 흔들다

Testimony

 

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July 12, 2017

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Chair Janet L. Yellen

Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.

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Chairman Hensarling, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. In my remarks today I will briefly discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Since my appearance before this committee in February, the labor market has continued to strengthen. Job gains have averaged 180,000 per month so far this year, down only slightly from the average in 2016 and still well above the pace we estimate would be sufficient, on average, to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force. Indeed, the unemployment rate has fallen about 1/4 percentage point since the start of the year, and, at 4.4 percent in June, is 5‑1/2 percentage points below its peak in 2010 and modestly below the median of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' assessments of its longer-run normal level. The labor force participation rate has changed little, on net, this year--another indication of improving conditions in the jobs market, given the demographically driven downward trend in this series. A broader measure of labor market slack that includes workers marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time who would prefer full-time work has also fallen this year and is now nearly as low as it was just before the recession. It is also encouraging that jobless rates have continued to decline for most major demographic groups, including for African Americans and Hispanics. However, as before the recession, unemployment rates for these minority groups remain higher than for the nation overall.

Meanwhile, the economy appears to have grown at a moderate pace, on average, so far this year. Although inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is currently estimated to have increased at an annual rate of only 1-1/2 percent in the first quarter, more-recent indicators suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter. In particular, growth in household spending, which was weak earlier in the year, has picked up in recent months and continues to be supported by job gains, rising household wealth, and favorable consumer sentiment. In addition, business fixed investment has turned up this year after having been soft last year. And a strengthening in economic growth abroad has provided important support for U.S. manufacturing production and exports. The housing market has continued to recover gradually, aided by the ongoing improvement in the labor market and mortgage rates that, although up somewhat from a year ago, remain at relatively low levels.

With regard to inflation, overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May, up from about 1 percent a year ago but a little lower than earlier this year. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has also edged down in recent months and was 1.4 percent in May, a couple of tenths below the year-earlier reading. It appears that the recent lower readings on inflation are partly the result of a few unusual reductions in certain categories of prices; these reductions will hold 12-month inflation down until they drop out of the calculation. Nevertheless, with inflation continuing to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, the FOMC indicated in its June statement that it intends to carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward our symmetric inflation goal.

Looking ahead, my colleagues on the FOMC and I expect that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace over the next couple of years, with the job market strengthening somewhat further and inflation rising to 2 percent. This judgment reflects our view that monetary policy remains accommodative. ongoing job gains should continue to support the growth of incomes and, therefore, consumer spending; global economic growth should support further gains in U.S. exports; and favorable financial conditions, coupled with the prospect of continued gains in domestic and foreign spending and the ongoing recovery in drilling activity, should continue to support business investment. These developments should increase resource utilization somewhat further, thereby fostering a stronger pace of wage and price increases.

Of course, considerable uncertainty always attends the economic outlook. There is, for example, uncertainty about when--and how much--inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization. Possible changes in fiscal and other government policies here in the United States represent another source of uncertainty. In addition, although the prospects for the global economy appear to have improved somewhat this year, a number of our trading partners continue to confront economic challenges. At present, I see roughly equal odds that the U.S. economy's performance will be somewhat stronger or somewhat less strong than we currently project.

Monetary Policy

I will now turn to monetary policy. The FOMC seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability, as required by law. Over the first half of 2017, the Committee continued to gradually reduce the amount of monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at both its March and June meetings, bringing the target to a range of 1 to 1-1/4 percent. In doing so, the Committee recognized the considerable progress the economy had made--and is expected to continue to make--toward our mandated objectives.

The Committee continues to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and stable prices. That expectation is based on our view that the federal funds rate remains somewhat below its neutral level--that is, the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel. Because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance. But because we also anticipate that the factors that are currently holding down the neutral rate will diminish somewhat over time, additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion and return inflation to our 2 percent goal. Even so, the Committee continues to anticipate that the longer-run neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades.

As I noted earlier, the economic outlook is always subject to considerable uncertainty, and monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to their economic outlooks and to their judgments of the associated risks as informed by incoming data. In this regard, as we noted in the FOMC statement last month, inflation continues to run below our 2 percent objective and has declined recently; the Committee will be monitoring inflation developments closely in the months ahead.

In evaluating the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC routinely consults monetary policy rules that connect prescriptions for the policy rate with variables associated with our mandated objectives. However, such prescriptions cannot be applied in a mechanical way; their use requires careful judgments about the choice and measurement of the inputs into these rules, as well as the implications of the many considerations these rules do not take into account. I would like to note the discussion of simple monetary policy rules and their role in the Federal Reserve's policy process that appears in our current Monetary Policy Report.

Balance Sheet Normalization

Let me now turn to our balance sheet. Last month the FOMC augmented its Policy Normalization Principles and Plans by providing additional details on the process that we will follow in normalizing the size of our balance sheet. The Committee intends to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing its reinvestment of the principal payments it receives from the securities held in the System Open Market Account. Specifically, such payments will be reinvested only to the extent that they exceed gradually rising caps. Initially, these caps will be set at relatively low levels to limit the volume of securities that private investors will have to absorb. The Committee currently expects that, provided the economy evolves broadly as anticipated, it will likely begin to implement the program this year.

Once we start to reduce our reinvestments, our securities holdings will gradually decline, as will the supply of reserve balances in the banking system. The longer-run normal level of reserve balances will depend on a number of as-yet-unknown factors, including the banking system's future demand for reserves and the Committee's future decisions about how to implement monetary policy most efficiently and effectively. The Committee currently anticipates reducing the quantity of reserve balances to a level that is appreciably below recent levels but larger than before the financial crisis.

Finally, the Committee affirmed in June that changing the target range for the federal funds rate is our primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. In other words, we do not intend to use the balance sheet as an active tool for monetary policy in normal times. However, the Committee would be prepared to resume reinvestments if a material deterioration in the economic outlook were to warrant a sizable reduction in the federal funds rate. More generally, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.

Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.

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Last Update: July 12, 2017

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20170712a.htm

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美 금리인상은 거의 끝?…옐런, 2가지 핵심전제 흔들다

의회보고에서 "인플레 불확실 + 낮은 중립금리"

"금리, 그렇게까지 많이 올릴 필요 없을 수도"

(서울=뉴스1) 신기림 기자 | 2017-07-13 09:22 송고 | 2017-07-13 09:24 최종수정

재닛 옐런 연방준비제도(연준) 의장이 이제 막 시작된 미국의 금리인상 사이클이 조기에 종료될 지도 모른다는 인식을 시장에 심어줬다. 오는 2019년말까지 3.0% 수준으로 미국 정책금리를 인상해 나간다는 구상의 전제가 되는 두 가지 변수들에 대해 근본적인 의구심을 제기했다. 현재 미국 금리는 1.00~1.25%이다. 

옐런 의장은 12일(현지시간) 하원 반기보고에서 인플레이션이 예상대로 회복될 지 불확실성이 크다고 언급했다. 지난달 금리를 인상하면서 인플레이션 둔화는 일시적이라던 자신감은 찾아볼 수 없었다. 그는 "연준은 2% 물가 목표 달성에 집중하고 있으며 이보다 낮은 언더슈팅이 계속되고 있는 점의 위험성을 인지하고 있다"고 밝혔다. 물가가 예상한 대로 올라가지 않는다면 정책금리 역시 당초 구상했던 대로 인상하기 어렵다는 얘기다. 지난달에만 해도 옐런 의장은 단기적인 저물가를 무시하고 금리를 계속 올려나갈 뜻을 밝힌 바 있다.

또 옐런 의장은 "경제에 중립적인 금리 수준이 역사적 관점에서 꽤 낮기 때문에 중립적인 통화정책 스탠스를 맞추기 위해 정책금리를 그렇게 많이 올릴 필요는 없을 것"이라고 말했다. 현재 실질 금리가 중립 금리와 크게 벌어져 있지 않다는 발언은 연준이 그렇게 금리를 많이 올리지 않을 가능성을 시사한다. 이번 금리인상 사이클이 곧 종료될 수 있다는 얘기로 들린다. 

물론 경제에 미치는 역풍들이 사라져 가면 단기적으로 낮아져 있는 실질 중립 금리도 차츰 올라갈 것이고, 연준의 정책금리도 그에 따라 점진적으로 인상될 수 있다고 옐런 의장은 말했다. 하지만 이 전망에도 역시 상당한 불확실성이 있음을 옐런 의장은 덧붙였다.

연준의 명목 정책금리는 인상 전략은 인플레이션과 실질 중립 금리의 상승에 따라가도록 설계되어 있다. 하지만 현재 미국의 인플레이션은 목표치 2%에서 훨씬 더 멀어진 1.40%로 부진하다. 게다가 금융위기 여파로 단기적으로 낮아진 실질 중립 금리가 예상대로 올라가고 있다는 신호는 강하지 않다. 더 낮아진 인플레이션은 실질 정책금리가 이미 중립 수준에 도달했을 가능성을 시사하기도 한다. 

옐런 의장의 이같은 발언은 채권 시장에 '서프라이즈'로 해석되며 가격 랠리를 불러왔다. 가격과 반대로 움직이는 수익률은 소폭 하락세를 타다가 옐런 의장의 발언 원고가 공개되자 낙폭을 넓혔다. 

미 국채 10년물 수익률은 이날 4.36bp(1bp=0.01%p) 내린 2.32%를 기록했다. 장중 2.30%까지 밀려 2주만에 최저를 나타냈다. 지난달 말 이후 글로벌 긴축 분위기에 따른 상승분을 상당히 반납했다. 

이안 린젠 BMO 미국 금리 본부장은 "모멘텀이 전환했다. 우리가 너무 과매도했고 갑자기 되감았다"며 "연준이 무슨 수를 써서라도 긴축할 것이라는 전망에 의문이 제기됐다"고 말했다. 

소시에테제네랄의 수바드라 라자파 미국 금리 전략 본부장은 "시장은 연준이 올해 금리 추가 금리 인상을 단행하지 않을 수도 있다는 사실에 주목했다"고 밝혔다. 

아문디 파이어니어의 파레쉬 우파드햐야 포트폴리오 매니저는 "이 같은 온건한 발언들은 연준의 긴축 정책의 종료가 가까워질 가능성이 있음을 시사한다"며 "옐런 의장으로부터 이 처럼 온건한 발언을 들은 것은 처음이다"라고 지적했다. 

옐런의 신중론은 다른 위원들의 전날 연설에서도 공유됐다. 라엘 브레이너드 연준 이사, 패트릭 하커 필라델피아 연은 총재, 닐 카시카리 미니애폴리스 연은 총재는 11일 임금성장 둔화와 인플레이션 정체를 언급하며 추가 금리인상에 신중한 의견을 피력했다. 매파적 성향을 보여 온 하커 총재의 태도 변화가 특히 주목됐다.

앞서 공개된 6월 FOMC 의사록 역시 당초 알려졌던 것보다는 조심스러운 연준 분위기를 보여 주었다. 의사록에 따르면, 몇몇 위원들은 향후 전반적인 경제환경이 예상대로 전개되더라도 양적긴축은 향후 금리 경로를 덜 가파르게 만들 수 있다고 말했다. 이르면 9월 회의에서 결정될 양적긴축 때문에라도 금리는 많이 더 못 올린다는 의견이 적지 않았다.

http://news1.kr/articles/?3046933