연준, 25bp 금리 인상…올해 2번 추가 인상 전망(종합)

http://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=315671

연준, 25bp 금리 인상…올해 2번 추가 인상 전망(종합)

승인 2017.03.16  04:03:24

(뉴욕=연합인포맥스) 신은실 특파원 = 미국 연방준비제도(연준·Fed)는 기준금리를 인상하고 올해 2번의 추가 인상이 단행될 것을 시사했다. 

연준은 15일 이틀에 걸친 3월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 정례회의 후 공개한 성명에서 기준금리인 연방기금(FF) 금리를 0.75~1.00%로 25bp 인상하고 경제가 전망대로 개선되는 모습을 보인다면 점진적인 기준금리 인상을 지속할 것이라고 밝혔다. 

연준은 올해 3번 금리를 올릴 것이라는 기존의 전망에 변화를 주지 않았다. 이는 이달 금리를 인상했기 때문에 올해 추가로 2번의 인상이 단행될 것이라는 의미다. 

연준은 물가가 최근 몇 분기 동안 연준의 장기 목표인 2%에 가까이 다가갔다고 평가했다. 연준은 또 물가 목표는 '균형잡힌(symmetric)' 목표로 남아 있다고 설명했으며 월스트리트저널(WSJ)은 이는 연준 위원들이 물가가 이 목표를 잠시 웃도는 것을 허용할 수 있다는 것을 의미한다고 풀이했다. 

연준은 "점진적인 통화정책 조정으로 경제가 완만한 속도로 확장하고 고용시장이 좀 더 개선되며 물가가 중기적으로 2% 부근에서 안정될 것이다"고 말했다. 

연준은 올해 말 FF 금리 중간값을 1.4%로, 내년 중간값을 2.1%로 제시했다. 2019년에는 3.0%를 예상했다.

올해와 내년 금리 중간값은 지난해 12월 예상에서 변화가 없었으며 2019년 전망치는 지난해 12월 2.9%에서 소폭 올랐다.

연준 위원들은 올해와 내년 국내총생산(GDP) 전망치 중간값은 2.1%로 제시했다. 2019년 전망치는 1.9%였다. 내년 전망치는 인상됐지만, 나머지는 유지됐다. 장기 GDP 전망치도 1.8%로 기존과 변화가 없었다. 

실업률 전망치는 올해부터 2019년까지 4.5%를 기록할 것으로 전망돼 종전 예상치가 유지됐다. 

장기적인 실업률 중간값은 4.7%로 지난 전망치인 4.8% 대비 하락했다. 

올해 물가 전망치는 1.9%, 내년과 2019년에는 2.0%로 제시됐다. 지난 전망과 변화가 없는 수준이다. 

장기 물가 전망치도 2.0%로 유지됐다. 

근원 물가 전망치는 올해 1.9%, 내년과 2019년에는 2.0%를 보일 것으로 예상됐다. 

이번 통화정책 결정은 투표 위원 10명 중 9명이 찬성하고 1명이 반대했다. 닐 카시카리 미니애폴리스 연방준비은행 총재는 기준금리 동결을 주장하며 금리 인상 정책 결정에 반대표를 행사했다. 

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http://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=315682

<뉴욕전문가 시각> 연준 예상보다 매파적이지 않아

신은실 기자  |  esshin@yna.co.kr

폰트키우기 폰트줄이기 프린트하기 메일보내기 신고하기

승인 2017.03.16  06:32:49

트위터 페이스북 미투데이 싸이월드 공감 요즘 네이버 구글 msn

(뉴욕=연합인포맥스) 신은실 특파원 = 월가 전문가들은 15일 연방준비제도(연준·Fed)가 이달 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)에서 예상보다 매파적이지 않은 모습을 보였다며 이 때문에 기준금리가 더 공격적으로 인상될 수 있다는 시장의 우려를 완화했다고 평가했다.

U.S.뱅크의 에릭 위건드 선임 포트폴리오 매니저는 "경제 전망에 거의 변화가 없었고 앞으로 기준금리 인상은 점진적인 수준으로 남아있을 것으로 보인다"며 "물가가 급격하게 상승하지 않는 현재 증시 수준도 유지될 것이다"고 예상했다. 

내셔널와이드의 데이비드 버손 수석 이코노미스트는 "이날 전반적인 연준 성명의 어조는 지나치게 공격적이지 않았다"며 "연준이 더 매파적일 것이라는 시장의 우려를 일부 잠재웠다"고 진단했다.

DS 이코노믹스의 다이앤 스웡크는 "대부분 사람이 더 매파적인 성명을 기대했다"며 "경제에 대한 어조는 강한 모습을 보였지만 물가에 대한 모호한 태도와 통화정책 결정에 반대표가 나온 것은 연준이 점진적인 정책을 지속할 것이라는 것을 의미한다"고 풀이했다. 

이날 회의에서 10명의 연준 위원 중 9명이 통화정책 결정에 찬성하고 닐 카시카리 미니애폴리스 연방준비은행 총재는 반대표를 행사했다.

싯 인베스트먼트 어소시에이츠의 브라이스 도티 선임 채권 매니저는 "연준이 예상보다 좀 더 공격적일 것이라는 긴장감이 있었다"며 "채권 시장에는 약간의 안도 랠리가 있었다"고 말했다. 

그는 다만 "채권 수익률 하락은 단기적일 것이다"며 "연준이 올해 기준금리를 2번 인상한다면 2년물 금리가 1.32%에 머물지는 못할 것이다"고 예상했다.

JP모건자산운용의 데이비드 켈리 수석 글로벌 전략가는 "물가가 지금 수준에서 아주 빠르게 상승하지는 않을 것이다"며 "그러나 물가가 안정적으로 상승하고 있다는 것은 명확하다"고 평가했다. 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN16M1IS

BUSINESS NEWS | Wed Mar 15, 2017 | 6:14pm EDT

Wall St. up as Fed raises rates but stays course

By Rodrigo Campos | NEW YORK

U.S. stocks rose sharply on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in three months, as expected.

The Fed, which raised its target rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to between 0.75 and 1.00 percent, did not however flag any plan to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening, a concern that had lingered among some market participants.

Markets were expecting the Fed's decision and traders had priced in more than a 90 percent chance of a quarter-point rate increase, according to federal funds futures.

"People were thinking the Fed might be more aggressive, so the fact that they weren't means more complacency and a continued course," said Eric Schoenstein, co-portfolio manager of the Jensen Quality Growth Fund in Portland, Oregon.

"The statement was not as hawkish as it might have been."

During her press conference after the meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen pointed to the stock market as an indicator of easing financial conditions, which some could take as a sign that stock valuations are not yet at stress levels.

"She cast the market’s role as a positive one on consumer balance sheets and left it at that. It will be read as an implicit endorsement of current valuations, which many consider quite high," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, a global brokerage company based in New York.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 112.73 points, or 0.54 percent, to 20,950.1, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 19.81 points, or 0.84 percent, to 2,385.26 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 43.23 points, or 0.74 percent, to 5,900.05.

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose 1.5 percent, while financials on the S&P 500 .SPSY were the worst-performing sector.

U.S. retail sales recorded their smallest gain in six months in February, setting U.S. gross domestic product on track to grow at a 0.8 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed's latest forecast.

Energy stocks boosted the S&P 500 as oil prices rose for the first time in more than a week on a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. crude CLc1 gained 2.6 percent to $48.96 per barrel and Brent LCOc1 added 2.3 percent to $52.08.

Exxon shares (XOM.N) rose 1.2 percent and Chevron (CVX.N) added 1.4 percent.

Apple (AAPL.O) closed up 1.1 percent at $140.46 after RBC raised its price target on the stock.

Twitter (TWTR.N) ended down 1.9 percent at $15.03 after a number of prominent accounts on the microblogging website were hacked.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 6.84-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.28-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 74 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 125 new highs and 42 new lows.

About 7.87 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, higher than the 6.98 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

(Additional reporting by Megan Davies and Sinead Carew; Editing by Nick Zieminski and James Dalgleish)

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-15/fed-raises-benchmark-rate-as-inflation-approaches-2-target

Yellen Calms Fears Fed's Policy Trigger Finger Is Getting Itchy

by Rich Miller , Christopher Condon , and Jeanna Smialek

2017년 3월 16일 오전 3:00 GMT+9 2017년 3월 16일 오전 7:02 GMT+9

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sought to reassure investors that the central bank’s latest interest-rate increase wasn’t a paradigm shift to a trigger-happy policy driven by fears of faster inflation.

Speaking to reporters after the Fed’s quarter percentage-point move on Wednesday, Yellen said the central bank was willing to tolerate inflation temporarily overshooting its 2 percent goal and that it intended to keep its policy accommodative for “some time.”

“The simple message is the economy’s doing well. We have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks,” she said.

As a result, the Fed is sticking with its policy of gradually raising interest rates, Yellen said. In their first forecasts in three months, Fed policy makers penciled in two more quarter-point rate increases this year and three in 2018, unchanged from their projections in December.

Today’s decision “does not represent a reassessment of the economic outlook or of the appropriate course for monetary policy,” the Fed chief said.

Speculation of a more aggressive Fed had mounted in recent days after a host of central bank officials, including Yellen herself, went out of their way to telegraph to financial markets that a rate hike was imminent. The expectations were further fueled by news of rising inflation.

Stocks Advance

Stocks rose and bond yields fell as investors viewed the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee and Yellen’s remarks afterward as a sign that the Fed isn’t in a hurry to remove monetary stimulus. The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.75 percent to 1 percent, as expected, but Yellen’s lack of urgency to snuff out inflation was a surprise.

R.J. Gallo, a fixed-income investment manager at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh, said the chorus of Fed speakers before this meeting led investors to expect a move up in the number of projected rate hikes this year, and even upgrades by Fed officials in the levels of inflation and growth they anticipated.

None of that materialized.

“You didn’t get any of those things,” Gallo said, which explains why Treasury yields quickly dropped after the Fed released the FOMC statement and a new set of economic projections. “The expectation that Fed was getting more hawkish had to come out of the market.”

The U.S. economy has mostly met the central bank’s goals of full employment and stable prices, and may get further support if President Donald Trump delivers promised fiscal stimulus. Investor and business confidence has soared since Trump won the presidency in November, buoyed by his vows to cut taxes, lift infrastructure spending and ease regulations.

Still, the data don’t show an economy that’s heating up rapidly -- a point Yellen herself made after the third rate hike since the 2007-2009 recession ended. In fact, the economy may have “more room to run,” she said.

Stronger business and consumer confidence hasn’t yet translated into increased investment and spending, said Yellen.

“It’s uncertain just how much sentiment actually impacts spending decisions, and I wouldn’t say at this point that I have seen hard evidence of any change in spending decisions,” said the Fed Chair. “Most of the business people that we’ve talked to also have a wait-and-see attitude.”

Retail sales in February grew at the slowest pace since August, a government report showed earlier Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s model for GDP predicts an expansion of 0.9 percent in the first quarter, less than a third the pace Trump is aiming for.

Fiscal Stimulus

Asked about the potential for a fiscal boost, Yellen made clear the Fed is still waiting for more concrete policy plans to emerge from the Trump administration before adapting monetary policy in reaction.

“There is great uncertainty about the timing, the size and the character of policy changes that may be put in place,” Yellen said. “I don’t think that’s a decision or set of decisions that we need to make until we know more about what policy changes will go into effect.”

Yellen disputed suggestions that the Fed was on a collision course with the Trump administration over its plans to foster faster economic growth through tax cuts and deregulation. “We would welcome stronger economic growth in the context of price stability,” she said.

She said she had met Trump briefly and had gotten together a couple of times with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss the economy and financial regulation.

Further underscoring their lack of urgency, Fed officials repeated a commitment to maintain their balance-sheet reinvestment policy until rate increases were well under way. Yellen said officials had discussed the process of reducing the balance sheet gradually, but had made no decisions and would continue to debate the topic.

Policy makers forecast inflation will reach 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter this year, and 2 percent in both 2018 and 2019, according to quarterly median estimates released with the FOMC statement. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose 1.9 percent in the 12 months through January, just shy of its target.

Yellen pointed out, though, that core inflation continues to run somewhat further below 2 percent. That rate, which strips out food and energy costs, stood at 1.7 percent in January. The Fed’s new forecast for the core rate at the end of this year edged up to 1.9 percent, from 1.8 percent in December.

“The committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal,” the Fed said. Discussing the word symmetric in the statement, Yellen said during her press conference that the Fed was not shooting to push inflation over 2 percent but recognized that it could temporarily go above it. Two percent is a target, she reiterated, not a ceiling.

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-interest-rate-hike-fueled-a-rally-in-gold-2017-03-15

Why the Fed interest-rate hike fueled a rally in gold

By Myra P. Saefong

Published: Mar 15, 2017 4:16 p.m. ET

     7  

AFP/Getty Images

Gold rallied after the Federal Reserve announced an increase to its key short-term interest rate on Wednesday, but the metal’s price reaction isn’t quite the head scratcher that it seems to be.

“It is a case of ‘sell the rumor (of a rate hike), buy the fact’,” said Ross Norman chief executive officer at Sharps Pixley, told MarketWatch by email from London after the announcement.

“We have consistently seen double-digit percentage increases in gold prices post a rate hike perversely,” he said. That’s “counter-intuitive because higher rates would ordinarily be seen as gold negative,” as the metal would be less attractive compared with interest-bearing assets.

–– ADVERTISEMENT ––

The U.S. central bank lifted a key short-term interest rate by a quarter-point to a range of 0.75% to 1% on Wednesday. It also stuck to its forecast for two more rate increases this year.

Norman said the gold market “clearly got itself going into the Fed announcement” and saw good short covering, or unwinding bets that prices will fall in value. So-called short covering typically accelerates an assets gains because an investor making a short bet is forced to essentially buy the asset back at higher prices in order to mitigate losses from gains.

Time

Gold - Electronic Apr 2017

16 Jan

30 Jan

13 Feb

27 Feb

13 Mar

US:GCJ7$1,150$1,175$1,200$1,225$1,250$1,275

Higher interest rates lift the appeal of holding dollars. That also means that a stronger dollar cuts the worth of holding gold that’s priced in the currency and doesn’t offer a yield.

But gold prices have instead rallied late Wednesday, following the Fed announcement, which came after futures prices settled for the session. April gold GCJ7, +1.97%  was at $1,215.20 an ounce a little over an hour after the Fed news. That’s higher than its settlement at $1,200.70.

“When an upcoming Fed rate hike becomes highly anticipated, deep-pocketed speculators go long on the dollar and, conversely, short gold,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. “When the rate hike actually happens, they close out these trades by selling the dollar and buying gold.”

Indeed, the dollar moved firmly lower Wednesday after the central bank delivered tis first rate increase of the year. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.00%  was down 0.8%.

The sell the rumor, buy the news reaction in gold shouldn’t be a surprise, according to Lundin. “It happened in the first two rate increases, in December 2015 and December 2016, in the Fed’s long, slow march toward a supposedly normalized monetary policy.”

“And it happened last week, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the FOMC would raise rates this week,” he said.

“In all three instances, gold popped higher. The year-end rate increases in 2015 and 2016 also launched big, multi-month bull runs in gold, silver and mining stocks,” said Lundin.

Cautious tone

But it isn’t just about traders accepting what was expected.

The interest-rate increase itself was widely expected, “and to that end, [Fed officials] did not surprise,” said Shree Kargutkar, associate portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

But “what the market was more intent to gauge was the language around the communiqué,” he said. “It appeared that the market was preparing itself for a more hawkish tone from the Fed, but what it got was a much more dovish outlook.” The Fed indicated three rate hikes for 2017, including Wednesday’s move, which was unchanged from its forecast for 2017 rate hikes back in December.

“While the language around the economy and inflation was positive, the outlook towards economic acceleration and GDP growth was not boosted,” he said. “Therefore, the Fed appears to continue leaning towards caution and as a result the Fed will likely remain behind the curve.”

The Fed pointed to a steadily growing economy, improving labor market and a recent uptick in inflation that’s “moving close” to its 2% target to justify its decision. But it also left itself room to maneuver in case inflation tapers off, U.S. growth falters or some of the Trump administration’s policies disrupt the economy.

“In our view, the Fed is still on target to raise rates this year, likely twice, as long as economic data remains supportive,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. He believes that’s “likely to continue to pressure gold prices over coming months.”

But looking ahead, Lundin said “only time will tell” if Wednesday’s bump higher for gold will “translate into a continuance of its 2017 rally.” Futures prices have gained roughly 5.8% year to date.

Lundin is predicting a continued price climb for the yellow metal.

“Inflationary pressures are rising, and the Fed will not dare get ahead of inflation in its gradual move toward higher rates,” he said. “This guarantees negative real rates for perhaps years to come, and similarly guarantees an extremely bullish environment for gold for some time.”

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