채권매도세 (금리 급등) : 미국발 스태그 플레이션이 원인

글로벌 금리 급등 주범은 獨 아닌 '미국'<WSJ>

승인 2015.05.14  09:05:24

미국발 스태그 플레이션이 원인 

(서울=연합인포맥스) 정선미 기자 = 최근 몇 주 사이 글로벌 채권금리가 급등한 것은 독일이 아니라 미국이 주도한 것일 수 있다는 분석이 제기됐다.

미국채 금리가 지난 1월말부터 오르기 시작한 것이 먼저이며 이후 유로존 금리가 지난달부터 뒤늦게 금리 상승에 동조했다는 것이다.

13일(미국시간) 월스트리트저널(WSJ)은 금리 상승에 따른 기존 시장의 설명이 해명하지 못하는 부분이 있다면서 앱솔루트 스트래티지의 이언 하네트 수석 스트래티지스트의 이같은 분석을 실었다. 

글로벌 금리 급등의 원인으로는 유럽국채 가격이 지나치게 오른 데 따른 조정과 유로존의 경기 회복 모멘텀, 유동성 고갈에 따른 기술적 매도의 심화 등이 지적되고 있다.

매체는 그러나 이는 지나치게 유럽 중심적인 설명으로 전세계적인 매도세가 나타나는 이유를 설명하지 못하고 있다고 지적했다.

그리스 우려로 유로존의 장기 국채금리 급등을 설명할 수 있겠지만, 이렇게 되면 미국 국채 금리는위험 회피 심리 때문에 하락하는 게 더 자연스럽다.

또 유로존의 경기 회복이 배경이라면 주가는 기업 실적 등에 대한 기대로 상승해야 하지만 증시에 대해서도 매도세가 나타나고 있다고 매체는 꼬집었다. 

하네트 스트래티지스트에 따르면 결국 금리 급등은 유로존의 경기 회복 국면, 즉 리플레이션 거래가 아니라 미국의 스태그플레이션이 그 원인이다. 

스태그플레이션은 경기 불황에도 물가가 오르는 현상이다. 

그는 자신이 추적하는 24개국 가운데 16개국의 제조업활동이 올해 초 이후 약화했다면서 미국과 아시아 지역의 지표는 계속해서 예상보다 부진하게 나오고 있다고 지적했다. 

이렇게 성장 전망이 나빠지면서 달러화 강세가 중단된 것이고 이는 달러화로 표시되는 원자재 가격의 상승을 부추기면서 예상보다 물가 상승률이 높아졌다고 분석했다.

실제로 국제유가는 지난 1월 이후 40%나 급등했다. 

금리 상승은 결국 글로벌 성장률 둔화와 높아진 인플레이션의 바람직하지 못한 조합을 시사하고 있다고 매체는 풀이했다. 

WSJ은 지난 수 주 동안 유로존 조사에서 성장 속도가 둔화한 것으로 나타난 것과 영란은행(BOE)이 이날 영국의 성장률 전망치를 하향 조정한 것이 이런 설명과 부합하고 있다고 평가했다.

이는 또 올해 완화정책을 계속해 온 글로벌 중앙은행들이 금리 인상이나 완화정책 중단을 서두르지 않을 것임을 시사하는 것이라는 분석도 덧붙였다. 

경기 둔화에 대한 우려는 국채가격의 하락을 제한하겠지만 달리 말하면 세계 경제가 걱정스러울 정도로 취약함을 인식하게 하는 것이라고 WSJ은 말했다.

http://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=156982

Bond Market Rout: Born in the USA?

Explanations of the great selloff in eurozone bonds tend to be too Eurocentric

No one knows for sure what caused the great bond market rout of the past few weeks. More than $450 billion of value has been wiped out. German 10-year government bonds, which in mid-April were yielding just 0.08%, are now yielding 0.64% having hit 0.73% earlier this week, back above the level in January before the European Central Bank announced its bond-buying program. Eurozone bond markets have given back almost all the gains that they had made since the start of the year while U.S., U.K. and Australian bonds have also been caught up in the turmoil. There are plenty of theories, all of which may contain elements of the truth, but none are entirely convincing.

One theory is that the selloff simply reflects a long overdue correction in markets that had become ludicrously overvalued. This seems hard to dispute: by mid-April up to 35% of European bonds were trading at negative yields, meaning investors were paying for the privilege of lending to governments. Some investors appear to have been buying purely in the expectation of capital gains, knowing that the ECB and some institutional investors would be obliged to buy regardless of the price. But once these speculators lost their nerve, perhaps because of concerns over the Greek crisis or because the supply of bonds picked up as governments took advantage of ultralow prices to boost their issuance, prices had a long way to fall to get back toward a level justified by underlying economic conditions.

Another theory holds that it was in fact the market’s assessment of underlying economic conditions that changed, triggering the adjustment in prices. on this analysis, the decisive factor was the clear evidence that the eurozone recovery was gathering pace since the start of the year, confirmed by data released Wednesday showing the eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter. All the major economies in Europe are now growing, including recent laggards France and Italy. As a result, investors have shed their extreme pessimism at the start of the year that the eurozone was about to drift into a Japanese-style deflation. With the oil price rising and euro strengthening, the debate has quickly turned to when the ECB will stop its bond-buying program, removing a key support for bond prices.

A third theory blames the scale of the selloff on technical factors. J.P. Morgan, for example, reckons that once the selloff started, many traders were forced to dump bonds because of a quirk in the so-called value-at-risk models which they use to set their exposure limits: when volatility is low, as it was for many months before the selloff, the models suggest it is safe to increase their exposure. But once the markets start to tumble and volatility picks up, the models tell investors to reduce their holdings.

This technical selloff appears to have been compounded by a lack of liquidity as banks have scaled back on their market-making activities in response to increased regulatory capital requirements that penalize trading desks. There is now ample evidence that this lack of market liquidity is amplifying market selloffs, as happened during the taper tantrum in 2013 and the U.S. Treasury market selloff in 2014.

But the problem with all these explanations is that they are too Europe-centric and ignore the fact that this has been a global selloff. Fears over a Greek accident might explain a selloff in longer-dated peripheral eurozone bonds, but not a selloff in U.S. Treasuries, which one might expect to rally were there a risk of serious instability. And if the eurozone recovery was the trigger, then why have stocks sold off too, rather than rallying in the expectation of higher corporate earnings?

Indeed, it was U.S. Treasury yields that started rising first at the end of January. Looked at this way, the rise in eurozone yields over the past month is a belated catch-up, notes Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research. What’s more, this U.S. selloff has taken place against the backdrop of disappointing global economic indicators. Surveys of manufacturing activity in 16 out of 24 countries tracked by Mr. Harnett have been weakening since the start of the year, with U.S. and Asian data consistently coming in worse than expected. This deteriorating growth outlook has halted the rally in the dollar, which has now started to reverse some of its gains against the euro last year. That, in turn, has allowed commodity prices to start recovering in dollar terms, which is likely to lead to higher inflation than previously expected.

If Mr. Harnett is right, what lies behind the bond market selloff isn’t a eurozone reflation trade but a U.S. stagflation trade: rising yields may be signaling an unwelcome combination of slower global growth and higher inflation. This is consistent with recent eurozone surveys which suggest that the pace of growth may have slowed in the past few weeks; it is also consistent with the Bank of England’s decision to cut its U.K. growth forecasts in Wednesday’s Inflation Report. It also suggests that central banks, which have continued to loosen monetary policy this year, will be in even less of a hurry to stop printing money or start raising rates. That may put a floor on how far government bond prices fall—but it would also be a recognition that the global economy remains worryingly fragile.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-market-rout-born-in-the-usa-1431548469?mod=rss_markets_main